> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Auto # Eyes on new models from Mar after a weak start Ten Chinese NEV makers/brands including Li Auto, Xpeng, NIO, BYD, Great Wall, Galaxy, Zeekr, Leapmotor, Xiaomi and Voyah reported their Feb 2026 sales volumes on 1 Mar 2026. Total NEV sales volume combined fell $24\%$ YoY (ranging from $-50\%$ to $+70\%$ ) and $14\%$ MoM (ranging from $-29\%$ to $0\%$ ) amid Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday. Li Auto and NIO in line, Xpeng missed. Li Auto's Feb deliveries only fell $5\%$ MoM to about 26,000 units, better than most peers, thanks to the i6 launched at the end of Sep 2025. Its Jan-Feb sales volume combined fell $4\%$ YoY to about 54,000 units. We believe the redesigned L-series, starting from the L9 in 2Q26, should be critical to achieving its full-year sales volume target of over 0.5mn units. Xpeng's Feb deliveries fell $24\%$ MoM to about 15,000 units, lower than our prior expectation. Its Jan-Feb cumulative sales volume fell $42\%$ YoY to about 35,000 units, despite the rollouts of several brand-new EREVs in the past four months (the X9 in Nov 2025, P7+ and G7 in Jan 2026). Xpeng plans to launch the P7 Max and G6 EREV in Mar 2026. NIO's Feb deliveries fell $23\%$ MoM to about 21,000 units, with the NIO brand contributing about 15,000 units. Its Jan-Feb sales volume combined rose $77\%$ YoY to about 48,000 units, driven by the new-generation ES8. Although NIO made a profit at net level (non-GAAP) in 4Q25 for the first time in history, we believe it still faces challenges in 2026, as its new orders from new models have been falling faster than our prior expectation, based on our channel checks. BYD and Geely resilient on exports, Leapmotor to launch the A10 in Mar. BYD's passenger-vehicle wholesale volume fell $9\%$ MoM to about 188,000 units in Feb, with Jan-Feb cumulative wholesale volume falling $36\%$ YoY to about 393,000 units. We expect BYD to roll out a plethora of new models with cutting-edge technologies in Mar, at the same pace as previous years, which could be a positive catalyst for its share price, in our view. Geely's NEV wholesale volume, including Galaxy, Zeekr and Lynk & Co, rose $10\%$ YoY in the first two months of 2026, aided by Zeekr. We expect such resilience to continue given the contribution of well received new models launched after Sep 2025. Leapmotor's wholesale volume fell $12\%$ MoM to about 28,000 units in Feb, with Jan-Feb cumulative wholesale volume falling $19\%$ YoY to about 60,000 units. Its brand-new small-size SUV, the A10, is scheduled to be rolled out in Mar. The company targets a sales volume of 1mn units $(+68\%$ YoY) in 2026E after posting doubled sales volume in two consecutive years in 2024-25, leveraging its more comprehensive model line-ups this year (with new A-series and D-series) and continued value-for-money strategy. NEV retail sales volume to fall $23\%$ YoY in the first two months of 2026. We project NEV retail sales volume in Feb 2026 to fall $15\%$ MoM to about 0.48mn units, with Jan-Feb retail sales volume falling $23\%$ YoY to about 1.0mn units. We estimate the NEV market share could fall to about $40\%$ in the first two months of 2026, following the halved purchase-tax benefits from Jan 2026. We expect NEV market share to rebound from Mar 2026, driven by new NEV model launches. # OUTPERFORM (Maintain) # China Auto Sector Ji SHI, CFA (852) 3761 8728 shiji@cmbi.com.hk Wenjing DOU, CFA (852)69394751 douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk Austin Liang (852) 3900 0856 austinliang@cmbi.com.hk Stocks Covered: <table><tr><td>Name</td><td>Ticker</td><td>Rating</td><td>TP(LC)</td></tr><tr><td>Xpeng</td><td>XPEV US</td><td>BUY</td><td>29</td></tr><tr><td>Xpeng</td><td>9868 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>113</td></tr><tr><td>Geely</td><td>175 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>25</td></tr><tr><td>GWM</td><td>2333 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>GWM</td><td>601633 CH</td><td>BUY</td><td>28</td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td>1211 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>125</td></tr><tr><td>BYD</td><td>002594 CH</td><td>BUY</td><td>125</td></tr><tr><td>GAC</td><td>2238 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>4.3</td></tr><tr><td>GAC</td><td>601238 CH</td><td>BUY</td><td>10</td></tr><tr><td>Leapmotor</td><td>9863 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>73</td></tr><tr><td>Yongda</td><td>3669 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>2.5</td></tr><tr><td>Meidong</td><td>1268 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>2.8</td></tr><tr><td>Tuhu</td><td>9690 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>23</td></tr><tr><td>Minth</td><td>425 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>Zenergy</td><td>3677 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>EVA</td><td>838 HK</td><td>BUY</td><td>1.3</td></tr><tr><td>Li Auto</td><td>LI US</td><td>HOLD</td><td>18</td></tr><tr><td>Li Auto</td><td>2015 HK</td><td>HOLD</td><td>70</td></tr><tr><td>NIO</td><td>NIO US</td><td>HOLD</td><td>6.4</td></tr><tr><td>NIO</td><td>9866 HK</td><td>HOLD</td><td>50</td></tr></table> Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM Related Reports: "China Auto Sector - Auto - Weak 4Q25 sales may lead to earning miss” – 21 Jan 2026 "China Auto Sector - 2026 Outlook: Second half of the NEV match" - 5 Dec 2025 Figure 1: BYD's monthly NEV wholesale volume Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 2: Galaxy's monthly NEV wholesale volume Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 3: NIO's monthly delivery Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 4: Li Auto's monthly delivery Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 5: Xpeng's monthly delivery Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 6: Leapmotor's monthly wholesale volume Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 7: Voyah's monthly wholesale volume Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 8: Xiaomi's monthly delivery Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 9: Great Wall's monthly NEV wholesale Source: Company data, CMBIGM Figure 10: Zeekr's monthly delivery Source: Company data, CMBIGM # Disclosures & Disclaimers # Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. 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