2025-05-19-Jefferies-最惠国待遇一揽子计划-我们收集了一些关键信息_15页_3mb

Summary of MFN Care Package Equity Research

• Key Uncertainty: The implementation of Most Favored Nations (MFN) policy under Trump's executive order is unclear, with a probability of meaningful legislation around 25%, primarily through Congress rather than CMS.

• Data Provided:

  • List of 25 OECD countries potentially used for MFN reference pricing (e.g., Luxembourg, Ireland, Canada, Japan).
  • Top 50 Medicare Part B and D drugs by projected 2025 spend, including 31 drugs in Jefferies' coverage.
  • Lowest international reference prices for the 31 covered drugs, which are 0-97% lower than current US prices.

• Impact Analysis:

  • Mid-cap biotechs with low Medicare exposure, de minimis ex-US revenues, or smaller US-ex-US pricing gaps are better positioned.
  • Companies like MDGL and EXEL may need to adjust ex-US strategies.
  • Reference pricing may significantly reduce drug costs, potentially 0-97% lower.

• Methodology:

  • Based on the 2020 MFN model, with GDP adjustments for fair comparison.
  • Data sources include OECD GDP data, Medicare spend projections, and international price databases.

• Bottom Line: Prepare for potential legislation impacting drug pricing, emphasizing companies' need to address ex-US strategies and international markets.