2017年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Towards_a_more_resilient_global_economy_DiskStation_Aug-13-0740-2018_CaseConflict_24页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Conference: Towards a More Resilient Global Economy

Introduction

As the global economy enters 2017, growth is beginning to accelerate. However, this should not lead to complacency. The conference aimed to explore the concept of resilience, its components, and the necessary steps to enhance it. It emphasized the importance of rebuilding policy buffers, implementing structural reforms, and addressing long-term challenges to ensure sustainable growth and crisis preparedness. The event was not part of the official G20 agenda and allowed for open discussions, without attributing specific opinions to individuals or nations.

Core Content

The conference was structured around six thematic work streams, each focusing on a different aspect of economic resilience:

Public Debt
Private Debt
The Real Economy
Taxes
Capital Flows
The Global Financial Architecture

Each work stream included three sessions, with a focus on transparency, sustainability, and structural reforms.

Main Themes and Key Points

1. Public Debt: Sustainability and Transparency

Transparency is essential for understanding public sector solvency and resilience.
Four dimensions of transparency were identified: institutional, accounting, projections (risk assessment), and behavioural (dependability).
New Zealand's accrual-based system provides a model for more transparent public sector balance sheets.
Debt/GDP ratio remains the most commonly used metric, but it may be less relevant in low-interest environments.
Contingent liabilities (such as health care and pension obligations) should be included in public debt assessments.
Accountability bonds (similar to CoCos) could be used to manage debt sustainability.
Fiscal rules must be clear and enforceable to ensure long-term stability.

2. Private Debt: Deleveraging and Avoiding Bubbles

High leverage is a threat to financial stability.
Deleveraging and credit growth are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Healthy banks are more likely to lend to healthy borrowers.
Credit growth is a better indicator of potential bubbles than debt levels.
Property price booms are more dangerous than equity price booms.
Equity finance is more stable and loss-absorbing, but it is less attractive due to tax advantages of debt and cultural biases.
Venture capital is crucial for innovative firms, but is limited in Europe.
Policy consistency and predictability are important for managing the transition to a more resilient financial system.

3. The Real Economy: Resilience through Flexibility

SMEs are a key policy focus, but their impact on growth and resilience varies by country and sector.
Structural reforms are necessary to enhance flexibility and resilience, especially in the face of digitalisation and automation.
Inequality and lack of participation in growth can undermine political and economic stability.
Inclusive growth supports policy reform and integration.
Investment in education, R&D, and innovation is critical for long-term resilience.
Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) help in re-skilling and preparing the workforce for future challenges.
Regulatory and institutional barriers must be addressed to allow SMEs to grow and become more resilient.

4. Taxes: Improving the Global Framework

Domestic resource mobilisation is important for funding public services and investment.
Tax uncertainty can deter investment and affect economic growth.
Digital value added presents new challenges for taxation, as it is intangible and cross-border.
Taxation of equity should be reconsidered to promote more balanced corporate funding structures.
Tax incentives for equity should be designed carefully to avoid new distortions, especially for small firms and start-ups.

5. Capital Flows: Shocks or Shock Absorbers?

Macro-prudential measures and capital controls are complementary tools for managing financial stability.
Emerging Markets (EMEs) face challenges in managing capital flows, with bond finance being more stable than bank finance.
Capital controls can have external effects, such as a "race to the bottom" or "race to the top".
Policy coordination is important to manage local and global bubbles, especially in housing.

6. The Global Financial Architecture

The macro and micro perspectives on financial stability need to be integrated.
The IMF and Regional Financial Arrangements (RFAs) should work together, not in competition.
Global safety nets require better incentives and more resources to be effective.
Fiscal and monetary policy must be coordinated to ensure smooth transitions and avoid moral hazard.

Conclusion

The conference aimed to provide a foundation for future discussions on resilience during the German G20 presidency. It highlighted the need for transparency, structural reforms, and policy coordination to build a more resilient global economy. While there was no consensus on specific policy recommendations, the discussion identified key areas for further research and policy development, including: