2017年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Towards_a_More_Resilient_Global_Economy_–_Executive_Summary_of_the_Berlin_G20_Conference_24页_1mb

Summary of the Conference on a More Resilient Global Economy

Introduction

The conference, held in Berlin on 30 November 2016, aimed to address the theme of resilience in the global economy. As economic growth started to pick up in 2017, the focus was on ensuring that progress is sustainable and that long-term commitments are maintained. The conference highlighted the importance of rebuilding policy buffers that were crucial during the global financial crisis. It also emphasized the need for tailored structural reforms to make economies more dynamic and innovative, thereby enhancing their ability to withstand shocks.

The event was organized around six thematic work streams, each focusing on different aspects of resilience. These included public debt, private debt, the real economy, taxes, capital flows, and the global financial architecture. The conference was not part of the official G20 program and allowed participants to express their views freely. As a result, the summary does not attribute opinions to specific individuals or countries, but rather presents the issues that need attention.

Core Themes and Objectives

• Resilience is defined as the ability to prevent, mitigate, and recover from economic and financial crises.
• The conference aimed to:
  • Clarify the meaning of resilience and its components.
  • Identify key areas that require further discussion and analysis.
  • Provide expert input to guide G20 work during the German presidency.
  • Ensure continuity between previous G20 initiatives and academic research.

Work Stream 1: Public Debt

Main Issues

• High public debt levels and low monetary policy rates reduce resilience.
• Transparency in public-sector balance sheets is essential for assessing solvency and resilience.
• The debate on metrics and rules for debt sustainability was central, with the debt/GDP ratio still widely used, but gross financing needs being considered as an alternative.
• Contingent liabilities (e.g., pensions, healthcare) are often underestimated and need to be included in assessments.

Key Points

• Four dimensions of transparency were identified: institutional, accounting, projections, and behavioral.
• New Zealand serves as a model for improved public-sector accounting with an accrual-based system.
• Independent fiscal councils could help improve forecast transparency and reliability.
• Accountability bonds (similar to CoCos) were suggested as a tool to manage excessive debt.
• Ownership of fiscal rules was emphasized as a key factor for long-term fiscal sustainability.

Work Stream 2: Private Debt

Main Issues

• High leverage threatens financial stability, but credit growth is also needed to stimulate the economy.
• Deleveraging and credit growth should not be seen as mutually exclusive.
• Asset price bubbles are difficult to identify, but credit growth is considered a better indicator of potential crisis.

Key Points

• Healthy banks are more likely to lend to healthy borrowers.
• Minimum capital requirements are important, but their implementation faces political and economic resistance.
• Credit growth is more indicative of potential crisis than the level of debt.
• Equity finance is more stable and loss-absorbing, but its use is limited due to tax advantages of debt and saver behavior.
• Venture capital is critical for start-ups and innovative firms, but is often lacking in Europe.

Work Stream 3: The Real Economy

Main Issues

• SMEs (small and medium enterprises) are often seen as a key driver of growth, but productivity is more associated with larger firms.
• The flexibility of SMEs is questionable due to limited investment in human capital.
• Structural reforms are necessary to enhance resilience and growth, especially in the face of digitalisation and automation.

Key Points

• Tailored policies are required for SMEs, as they are not a homogenous group.
• Financial constraints are a major barrier for SME growth and need to be addressed through diverse instruments.
• Education, innovation, and labor market policies are essential for building a resilient economy.
• Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) support workforce adaptation and productivity.

Work Stream 4: Taxes

Main Issues

• The global tax framework needs improvement, especially in the context of digital value added and intangible assets.
• Domestic resource mobilisation and investment certainty are key to long-term economic stability.

Key Points

• Taxation of equity should be re-evaluated to reduce distortions.
• Corporate tax regimes often favor debt over equity due to interest deductibility.
• Digital value added is a growing concern and requires new approaches to taxation.
• Taxes on older generations might be necessary to ensure intergenerational equity in aging societies.

Work Stream 5: Capital Flows

Main Issues

• Macro-prudential measures and capital controls are tools to manage capital flows and prevent shocks.
• Emerging markets (EMEs) face unique challenges in managing capital inflows and outflows.
• External effects of capital controls need to be carefully considered.

Key Points

• Capital controls can be complements or substitutes for macro-prudential measures.
• EMEs may benefit from more stable financing via bond finance rather than bank finance.
• The race to the bottom in capital controls could have negative consequences.
• Predictability of policy is crucial to avoid uncertainty and promote credit growth.

Work Stream 6: The Global Financial Architecture

Main Issues

• The global financial system needs to be reformed to enhance resilience and stability.
• The IMF and Regional Financial Agencies (RFAs) need to work together rather than compete.
• Global safety nets should be improved with better incentives and funding mechanisms.

Key Points

• The macro and micro perspectives of the global financial architecture should be integrated.
• Cooperation between the IMF and RFAs is important for effective crisis management.
• Global safety nets need to be more robust and better aligned with economic realities.
• Incentives and transparency are key to improving the effectiveness of global financial mechanisms.

Conclusion

The conference highlighted the importance of resilience in the global economy and the need for comprehensive and flexible policy approaches. It emphasized the role of transparency, structural reforms, taxation, and capital flow management in building a more resilient economic framework. The G20 was encouraged to take a coordinated and evidence-based approach to address these issues, with a focus on long-term sustainability and policy coherence.