2017年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Towards_a_More_Resilient_Global_Economy_24页_1mb

Summary of the Conference on a More Resilient Global Economy

Introduction

The conference, held in Berlin on 30 November 2016, focused on enhancing the resilience of the global economy. It emphasized that while economic growth is beginning to pick up, this should not lead to complacency. The discussion centered around the need for continued structural reforms and the importance of rebuilding policy buffers to prepare for future crises. The event was not part of the official G20 agenda, allowing for open and diverse perspectives from participants.

Core Content and Main Themes

The conference was structured around six thematic work streams, each addressing a different aspect of economic resilience:

1. Public Debt
2. Private Debt
3. The Real Economy
4. Taxes
5. Capital Flows
6. The Global Financial Architecture

These work streams aimed to explore the concept of resilience, its components, and how to enhance it through policy and structural changes.

Key Work Streams and Findings

1. Public Debt: Sustainability and Transparency

• Main Issues: The need for greater transparency in public sector balance sheets and the use of appropriate metrics for assessing debt sustainability.
• Discussion Leaders: Carmen Reinhart, George Kopits, Ian Ball, and Guangyao Zhu.
• Summary:
  • Transparency in public finances is crucial for resilience, but it must be balanced with the risk of market panic during crises.
  • The debt/GDP ratio remains the most widely used metric, but other indicators like gross financing needs and contingent liabilities should also be considered.
  • The inclusion of central bank liabilities in public debt figures was debated, with concerns about the potential for arbitrary shifts in balance sheets.
  • Building buffers and implementing sound fiscal rules were highlighted as key steps to ensure long-term debt sustainability.

2. Private Debt: Deleveraging and Avoiding Bubbles

• Main Issues: The dilemma between deleveraging and credit growth, and the challenge of identifying and managing asset price bubbles.
• Discussion Leaders: Claudio Borio, Cinzia Alcidi, Yung Chul Park, Isabel Schnabel, Stephen Cecchetti, Robert Shiller, and Lewis Alexander.
• Summary:
  • Deleveraging is not necessarily incompatible with credit growth, as better capitalised banks can lend more and support economic recovery.
  • Asset price bubbles are complex, involving multiple factors like narratives and credit expansion.
  • Credit growth is a better indicator of bubble risk than asset prices alone.
  • Equity finance is more stable than debt, but its use is hindered by tax disadvantages and cultural biases.
  • Encouraging equity through tax reforms and improving financial literacy can increase its attractiveness.

3. The Real Economy: Resilience through Flexibility

• Main Issues: The role of SMEs in economic resilience, and the effectiveness of structural reforms.
• Discussion Leaders: Ngaire Woods, Andre Laboul, Helmut Kraemer-Eis, and Jürgen Heraeus.
• Summary:
  • SMEs are not a homogenous group and require tailored policies.
  • Structural reforms should be targeted at improving flexibility and productivity, particularly in the context of technological change.
  • Investment in education, research, and innovation is essential for long-term resilience.
  • Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) are important for enhancing workforce adaptability and reducing unemployment.

4. Taxes: Improving the Global Framework

• Main Issues: How to reform tax systems to support economic resilience and growth.
• Discussion Leaders: Clemens Fuest, Niels Thygesen, José Luis Escriva, Bruno Colmant, Vitor Gaspar, and Thomas Mayer.
• Summary:
  • Tax systems should be reformed to reduce the bias against equity financing.
  • The use of tax allowances for equity (ACE) and incremental taxation can help promote more balanced corporate funding.
  • The G20 can play a role in monitoring and harmonising tax policies across countries.

5. Capital Flows: Shocks or Shock Absorbers?

• Main Issues: The role of capital flows in economic stability and the effectiveness of macro-prudential measures and capital controls.
• Discussion Leaders: Cinzia Alcidi, Robert Shiller, and others.
• Summary:
  • Macro-prudential measures and capital controls can be used together to manage risks.
  • Emerging markets (EMEs) face particular challenges with capital flows, and the choice between bank and bond finance remains a topic of debate.
  • Capital controls may lead to a "race to the bottom" or "race to the top" depending on how they are implemented and coordinated globally.

6. The Global Financial Architecture

• Main Issues: The role of institutions like the IMF in maintaining global financial stability and the need for better safety nets.
• Discussion Leaders: Chris Sims, Guido Tabellini, Huw Pill, and others.
• Summary:
  • The global financial architecture needs to be more resilient, with a focus on both macroeconomic and microeconomic stability.
  • The relationship between the IMF and regional financial arrangements (RFAs) should be strengthened through cooperation and integration.
  • Global safety nets must be improved with better incentives and adequate funding to support countries during crises.

Conclusion

The conference highlighted the multifaceted nature of economic resilience and the need for a combination of transparency, structural reforms, and sound financial policies. While there was no consensus on specific solutions, the discussion underscored the importance of preparing for future economic shocks, ensuring sustainable growth, and improving the global financial framework. The outcomes of the conference were intended to inform ongoing G20 discussions and contribute to a more resilient global economy.