中国实现碳中和的可再生能源路径（英）-44页_2mb

China's Renewable Energy Deployment Pathways for Carbon Neutrality

Background

This report analyzes feasible and efficient pathways for decarbonizing China's power sector by 2060, supporting the national goals of peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. It addresses uncertainties in deployment pace, technology structur
ing, and regional impacts.

Methodology

A high-resolution modeling approach simulates China's power sector from 2020 to 2060 at decadal intervals. The model optimizes deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE), storage, and transmission to meet hourly electricity demands while minimizing costs and adhering to grid reliability and land use constraints.

Key Findings

• Deployment Rates: Annual installations of wind and solar rise from ~70 GW in 2020-2030 to 210-300 GW in 2050-2060. Storage additions increase from 105-173 GWh to 180-260 GWh per year. Transmission expands significantly, driven by inter-regional balancing needs.
• Regional Distribution: Deployment shifts from north and west to major load centers over time, with solar and wind concentrated in high-quality resource regions initially, later extending to demand hubs. Land use peaks in eastern provinces by 2060.
• Challenges: Land constraints in eastern areas, misalignment between coal retirement and renewable growth in some regions, and the need for transmission expansion to handle renewable variability.

Policy Recommendations

National and subnational governments should:

• Incorporate clear renewable deployment targets and storage/transmission planning into policies.
• Streamline land use permitting and promote market reforms for efficient power trading.
• Address coal retirement impacts and monitor global supply chains to ensure technology availability.

Conclusion

Decarbonizing the power sector requires coordinated deployment of renewables, storage, and transmission. Policies must address regional disparities, land use, and political economy challenges to ensure an equitable and efficient transition.