中美碳中和地区性进展跟踪（英）-63页_8mb

U.S.-China Climate Institute Report Summary

• Authors: Fredrich Kahrl*, Jessica Gordon*, Fan Dai*, Jie Han, with affiliations from UC Berkeley.

• Institute: Focuses on joint U.S.-China climate initiatives, launched in 2019, involving policymakers and experts to foster cooperation and climate solutions.

Indicators and Milestones Development

• Aims to balance simplicity and completeness for tracking progress toward carbon neutrality (U.S.
  by 2050, China by 2060).

• Dual-Harmonized indicators tracking:

  • Flow indicators (e.g., new infrastructure adoption, e.g., EV sales).
  • Stock indicators (e.g., total energy mix shifts, e.g., non-fossil electricity share).

• 2035 Milestones define national benchmarks for key sectors (electricity, buildings,
  industry, transport, forestry, energy intensity, CO₂ intensity).

Key Findings

• Electricity: Significant growth in non-fossil (wind, solar) generation capacity. U.S. share
  (new capacity) >79% (2019-2021 avg), rising to >90% by 2035. China similar trend, from 33%
  to 67%. Stock share (total generation) increases from 30–40% to >55–95%.

• Buildings: Non-fossil energy share in final consumption increases from ~50–60% to 70–75%.
  Focus on electrification (esp. heating pumps in U.S., district heating in China).

• Industry: Share of non-fossil energy doubles (22–40% → 32–45%).

• Transportation: ZEV sales share rising (8–22% → >80% in U.S.), and in freight (1% →
  60%). Non-fossil energy share ~5% → 20%.

• Forestry: Optimistic but cautious milestones. U.S. forest area grows by 2.2 pp (to 34.2%) and
  volume by ~1 m³/ha-yr. China adds 3 pp forest area (to 23%) and ~1.5 m³/ha-yr volume.

• Energy & CO₂ Intensity: Declines needed: U.S. energy intensity falls 43% (basis 2000), CO₂
  intensity drops 70% (relative to 2020). China matches energy intensity decline but CO₂ drops
  60%.

Policy Implications

• Data Gaps: Notable limitations in state-level data (especially flow indicators). Calls for
  national policy to standardize data collection.

• Convergence: U.S. progress steady but slow per state, China shows regional diversity.

• Recommendations:
  Global cooperation on cross-border challenges (e.g., renewable access, emissions R&D).
  Subnational regions need tailored support to meet milestones. Strengthened bilateral dialogue
  based on shared scientific and policy frameworks.

Table: List of key 2035 milestones by sector (simplified from Table 2)

• Key recommendations emphasize data harmonization, policy tracking, and targeted subnational support for accelerated progress toward mid-century climate neutrality goals.