UNDP-发展4.0：亚太地区加速实现可持续发展目标中的机遇与挑战（英文）-2018.10-92页-5mb

Summary of Development 4.0: Opportunities and Challenges for Accelerating Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals in Asia and the Pacific

Core Content

Development 4.0 is a report by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), supported by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), that explores the opportunities and challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in relation to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The report emphasizes the transformative potential of automation and artificial intelligence (AI), while also highlighting the risks they pose to employment, social equity, and environmental sustainability.

Main Viewpoints

• Technological Change and the SDGs: The Fourth Industrial Revolution, characterised by innovations such as AI, automation, and the Internet of Things (IoT), is set to reshape economies and societies in Asia and the Pacific. It has the potential to both advance and hinder progress towards the SDGs.
• Employment Risks: Automation threatens to displace a large number of jobs, particularly in manufacturing and service sectors. Job losses are not evenly distributed; men tend to gain one job for every three lost, while women gain one for every five. This raises concerns about gender inequality, especially in sectors dominated by women.
• Premature Deindustrialisation: Critics warn of the early decline of manufacturing in developing countries due to free trade policies that limit the ability of governments to support local industries. This could have broader political and social consequences.
• Public Sector Implications: AI and automation can improve public services, but they also carry risks, including the reinforcement of biases in policing, justice, and healthcare. These biases can be embedded in algorithms and affect the fairness and inclusiveness of services.
• Environmental and Social Opportunities: Technology can help address ecological challenges and support sustainable development. For example, drones and satellites are used for delivering health supplies, and AI is aiding climate change research.

Key Information

• Automation and AI Impact: The report highlights that over 60% of salaried workers in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are at high risk of automation.
• SDG Impacts: At least nine SDGs could be negatively affected by automation and AI, primarily due to increased unemployment, but also through other channels such as the risks in "gig" and "on-demand" economies.
• Policy Recommendations: The report outlines five key themes for policy action:
  1. Embrace predictive and adaptive decision-making.
  2. Capture emerging sources of growth and employment.
  3. Reimagine citizen engagement and personalised service delivery.
  4. Enhance protection to leave no one behind.
  5. Mobilise and allocate finance for a better future.
• Positive Applications: AI and automation can enhance public services, reduce bureaucracy, and support sustainable development through precision agriculture, climate tracking, and disaster relief.
• Dual Use of Technology: The same technologies can be used for both positive and negative purposes, depending on how they are developed and deployed.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Technological Anxiety: There is growing concern about the potential of AI and automation to replace human workers in both physical and cognitive tasks, which could lead to increased inequality and social unrest.
• Need for Proactive Policy: Governments must proactively design policies and institutions that are predictive, adaptable, and responsive to citizen needs to ensure that the benefits of technology are maximised and the risks are managed.
• Regional Diversity: The 4IR will affect countries in Asia and the Pacific differently, necessitating tailored approaches to policy-making and development.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the 4IR presents significant challenges, particularly in terms of employment and social equity, it also offers substantial opportunities for sustainable development. The key to harnessing these opportunities lies in proactive, inclusive, and adaptive policy frameworks that consider both the risks and the potential for positive transformation. The report aims to support governments and development actors in this process by identifying critical themes for further analysis and guiding the design of policies and institutions that can ensure a net positive impact on the SDGs.