20151214-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_18页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 14 December 2015
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive summary of regional economic and company updates for China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, along with key indices, top picks, and financial metrics. It outlines the performance of various sectors, the impact of economic policies, and investment recommendations for specific companies.
Main Points by Region
China
- Economic Activity: Chinese economic data stabilized around the bottom in November, with a rebound in industrial production and retail sales. The growth rate of industrial value-added rose to 6.2% yoy, surpassing market expectations.
- Fixed Asset Investment (FAI): FAI growth remained flat at 10.2% yoy, but infrastructure FAI grew 18.2% yoy. Fiscal and monetary stimulus is expected to continue.
- Retail Sales: Retail sales growth increased to 11.2% yoy in November, driven by auto sales (up 9% yoy) and strong performance in household appliances and decoration materials.
- Monetary Indicators: M2 money supply grew 13.7% yoy to Rmb137.4t, and total social financing (TSF) reached Rmb1.02t in November, exceeding market expectations.
- Brilliance Auto (1114 HK):
- November sales increased 18% yoy to 28,131 units, beating expectations.
- The 5-series and 3-series were the main drivers of sales growth.
- The company's full-year 2015 sales growth target of 4% should be achievable.
- Earnings are expected to resume growth in Q4 2015 due to sales recovery and more evenly distributed marketing expenses.
- Maintained BUY recommendation with a target price of HK$14.00, implying a 37.3% upside.
Indonesia
- Cement Sector:
- November 15 sales declined 5% mom to 6.1mt, following a record high of 6.5mt in October.
- Cumulative 11M15 sales improved 1.3% yoy to 55.5mt, on track to meet the 2015 forecast of 60mt.
- Sector valuation remains undemanding at 14.3x 2015F PE, compared to the 5-year average of 16.5x.
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector, with INTP as the top pick.
Malaysia
- Small Caps: Northern Lights:
- Positive outlook on Tek Seng and Spritzer's parent company, Yee Lee, based on recent visits to northern states.
- Maintain BUY on Tek Seng and Yee Lee.
Singapore
- Singapore Press Holdings (SPH):
- Advertising revenue contracted in 1QFY15, but at a slower rate than previously expected.
- Maintained HOLD recommendation with a target price of S$4.10.
Thailand
- Thaicom (THCOM):
- Most negative factors have been priced in, suggesting potential for recovery.
- Maintain BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt35.00.
Key Indices Performance
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17265.2 | -1.8 | -3.3 | 0.1 | -3.1 |
| S&P 500 | 2012.4 | -1.9 | -3.8 | -0.5 | -2.3 |
| FTSE 100 | 5952.8 | -2.2 | -4.6 | -2.7 | -9.3 |
| AS30 | 5078.6 | -0.2 | -2.4 | -0.6 | -5.8 |
| CSI 300 | 3608.1 | -0.4 | -1.9 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| FSSTI | 2834.6 | -0.5 | -1.5 | -3.1 | -15.8 |
| HSCEI | 9308.0 | -1.5 | -5.4 | -8.6 | -22.3 |
| HSI | 21464.1 | -1.1 | -3.5 | -4.2 | -9.1 |
| JCI | 4393.5 | -1.6 | -3.2 | -1.8 | -15.9 |
| KLCI | 1640.1 | -0.5 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -6.9 |
| KOSPI | 1948.6 | -0.2 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.7 |
| Nikkei 225 | 19230.5 | 1.0 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -10.2 |
| SET | 1280.9 | -1.3 | -4.4 | -7.3 | -14.5 |
| TWSE | 8115.9 | -1.2 | -3.4 | -2.6 | -12.8 |
| BDI | 522 | -2.2 | -7.3 | -6.8 | -33.2 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2151 | 0.0 | 1.8 | -0.8 | -6.4 |
| Brent Crude (US$/bbl) | 38 | -4.5 | -11.8 | -17.2 | -33.8 |
Top Picks
BUY Recommendations
- Beijing Capital (694 HK): Target price HK$11.40, upside 40.2%
- ICBC (1398 HK): Target price HK$7.60, upside 68.1%
- Bank BJB (BJBR IJ): Target price 1,140.00, upside 59.4%
- DiGi.Com (DIGI MK): Target price HK$5.95, upside 17.8%
- Maybank (MAY MK): Target price HK$10.00, upside 20.0%
- CapitaLand (CAPL SP): Target price S$4.08, upside 29.9%
- DBS (DBS SP): Target price S$22.34, upside 36.1%
- Kasikornbank (KBANK TB): Target price Bt215.00, upside 40.1%
- PTT (PTT TB): Target price Bt340.00, upside 54.5%
SELL Recommendations
- SIA Engineering (SIE SP): Target price HK$3.30, downside 7.8%
- UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Target price HK$7.00, downside 7.8%
Key Assumptions
| Indicator | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F | 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (% yoy) | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | - |
| Brent (Average) | - | 99.45 | 56 | - |
| CPO (US$/mt) | - | 722 | 550 | - |
| Average capacity (units) | 300,000 | 375,000 | 400,000 | 450,000 |
| Capacity utilisation | 92.8% | 77.3% | 92.5% | 95.6% |
| Net margin (%) | 11.7 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.0 |
Financial Highlights - Brilliance Auto
- Net Profit (2015F): Rmb3,616m (down 33% yoy)
- Net Profit (2016F): Rmb4,658m (up 29% yoy)
- Net Profit (2017F): Rmb5,332m (up 14% yoy)
- EPS (2015F): 71.9 fen
- PE (2015F): 11.5x
- P/B (2015F): 2.1x
- Target Price (2015): HK$14.00
- Upside: +37.3%
Conclusion
The report highlights the stabilization of Chinese economic activity in November, supported by continued stimulus measures and improved sales performance in key sectors like automobiles. It also notes the robustness of the Indonesian cement sector and maintains a positive outlook on Malaysian small caps. In Singapore, the press sector is seen as underperforming but with potential for recovery. The document provides detailed financial data, key assumptions, and stock recommendations for investors, with a focus on the positive outlook for Brilliance Auto and the cement sector in Indonesia.
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