20160307-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_18页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 07 March 2016
Core Content Overview
This document provides an analysis of economic and market conditions across several Asian countries, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and key financial indices. It also includes company-specific updates on Astra International (ASII) and other market participants, along with investment recommendations and financial forecasts.
Main Points by Country
China
- Economic Policy: The Chinese government set a GDP growth target of 6.5–7.0% for 2016, indicating a more flexible approach to economic stabilization and structural reform.
- Fiscal Policy: The government is expected to increase its fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP (Rmb2.18t) through tax cuts and infrastructure investment.
- Monetary Policy: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue monetary easing, including RRR cuts and targeted liquidity injections, to support the real economy and SMEs.
- Key Sectors:
- Infrastructure: Expected to remain robust due to continued fiscal stimulus.
- Coal and Steel: Focus on overcapacity elimination and zombie enterprise removal through M&A and debt restructuring.
- VAT Reform: Will not increase the tax burden on enterprises, easing concerns about the impact on the construction sector.
Key Indices Performance
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17006.8 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 4.9 | -2.4 |
| S&P 500 | 2000.0 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 6.4 | -2.2 |
| FTSE 100 | 6199.4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 6.0 | -0.7 |
| AS30 | 5174.2 | 0.4 | 4.6 | 3.0 | -3.2 |
| CSI 300 | 3093.9 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 4.4 | -17.1 |
| FSSTI | 2837.0 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 8.1 | -1.6 |
| HSCEI | 8557.7 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | -11.4 |
| HSI | 20176.7 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 4.6 | -7.9 |
| JCI | 4850.9 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5.6 |
| KLCI | 1692.5 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | -0.0 |
| KOSPI | 1955.6 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | -0.3 |
| Nikkei 225 | 17014.8 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 1.2 | -10.6 |
| BDI | 349 | 2.0 | 6.7 | 17.5 | -27.0 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2426 | -0.4 | -1.0 | 1.3 | 10.3 |
| Brent Crude | 39 | 4.5 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 3.9 |
Top Picks
BUY Recommendations
- Beijing Capital (694 HK) – Target: Rp11.40
- ICBC (1398 HK) – Target: Rp5.05
- Bank BJB (BJBR IJ) – Target: RM1,140.00
- WCT Holdings (WCTHG MK) – Target: RM2.05
- Maybank (MAY MK) – Target: RM9.55
- City Developments (CIT SP) – Target: S$10.86
- DBS (DBS SP) – Target: S$17.48
- Kasikornbank (KBANK TB) – Target: Bt192.00
- PTT (PTT TB) – Target: Bt320.00
SELL Recommendations
- Spurakencana (SAKP MK) – Target: Bt1.43
- Sembcorp (SMM SP) – Target: Bt0.88
Key Assumptions
| Country | GDP (yoy) 2014 | GDP (yoy) 2015F | GDP (yoy) 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Japan | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Singapore | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Malaysia | 6.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Thailand | 0.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| China | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 |
Corporate Events
- Plantation Outlook Seminar 2016 – Kuala Lumpur, 07 Mar
- TRX City Sdn Bhd Luncheon – Malaysia, 08 Mar
- China Economy and China Financial Sector Analyst Presentation – Singapore (09 Mar), Kuala Lumpur (10–11 Mar)
- ASEAN Conference – Taiwan, 22–23 Mar
Company Update: Astra International (ASII IJ)
- Earnings Recovery: Weak 2015 results are expected to lead to >40% reported EPS growth in 2016 due to improved auto margins, recovery in the CPO division, and stable NIM in financial services.
- Target Price: Raised from Rp7,600 to Rp8,200.
- Upside: +18.8%.
- Financial Highlights:
- 2016F Net Profit: Rp20,849b (up 44.1% yoy).
- EPS Forecast: Rp515 (up 44.1% from 2015).
- PE (2016F): 13.4 (lower than 2015).
- P/B (2016F): 2.4 (lower than 2015).
- Valuation Metrics: SOTP-based TP at Rp8,200, which is 2.9x 2016F P/B (vs 5-year average of 3.2x).
Our View
- Economic Outlook: A hard landing is expected to be avoided due to fiscal and monetary stimulus, though long-term growth may not reverse quickly without market-oriented reforms.
- Infrastructure Investment: Expected to remain strong in 2016 to support economic growth.
- Stock Market Impact: Initial policy announcements are likely to be market neutral, with no major pullback due to the PBOC's liquidity injection.
- Valuation Insight: P/B is a better metric than PE to assess undervaluation, especially during periods of depressed earnings.
Analysts
- Chaoping Zhu: +8621 5404 7225 ext. 822 | chaoping@uobkayhian.com
- Mun Hon Tham: +852 2236 6799 | munhon.tham@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Stevanus Juanda: +62212993 3876 | stevanusjuanda@uobkayhian.com
Risks and Considerations
- Weakness in UNTR: Continued low coal prices could affect performance.
- Financial Services: Potential impact from lending rate caps.
- Structural Reforms: Implementation is slow due to lack of detailed guidelines.
Conclusion
The document highlights the Chinese government's focus on stabilization and structural reforms, with fiscal and monetary easing expected to support economic growth and prevent a hard landing. For Astra International, BUY is maintained with an increased target price due to expected earnings recovery. The outlook for other markets remains cautious, with infrastructure and consumer sectors showing potential for growth.
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