20180723-凯基证券-Investment_Daily_5页_236kb

Market Summary

Core Market Indicators

• HSI rose 214 points to 28,224 on 20 Jul, rebounding from a decline on Friday.
• HSCEI increased by 159 points to 10,682.
• Market turnover for HSI was HK$100.3 billion, indicating strong trading activity.
• The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to trade within the range of 28,100-28,500.

Technical Analysis

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

• MACD Histogram: Positive territory, with a positive trend extending.
• Support Levels: 27,746 (first), 27,500 (second).
• Resistance Levels: 20-day SMA (first), 29,000 (second).
• Closing: Finished above 28,000, indicating a bullish close.

HSI Futures

• July Futures: Closed at 28,224, with a volume of 223,373 and open interests of 131,878.
• August Futures: Closed at 28,210, with a volume of 2,091 and open interests of 5,398.

HSCEI Futures

• July Futures: Closed at 10,700, with a volume of 145,752 and open interests of 234,182.
• August Futures: Closed at 10,720, with a volume of 4,923 and open interests of 25,032.

Key Sector Analysis

China Banking Sector

• Regulatory Changes: China issued draft rules on wealth management products, which are less tight than previously expected.
• Market Impact: The rules are seen as providing more flexibility, slowing down deleveraging, and stabilizing market expectations.
• Mainland Banks: Expected to benefit in the short term, especially as they are not expected to guarantee returns.
• Recommendation: Accumulate large-scale China banks during weakness, with China Construction Bank (0939.HK) as a top pick.
• Financial Metrics for CCB (0939.HK):
  • Closed price: 6.86
  • Expected P/E: 5.6
  • Dividend yield: 5.5%
  • 52-week high: 9.05
  • 52-week low: 5.98
  • 14-day RSI: 42.7

Tian Lun Gas (1600)

• Pipeline Rights: Acquired exclusive pipeline gas concession rights in seven towns of Wugang City for 27 years.
• Revenue Structure:
  • Gas sales: 78.1% of total revenue
  • Connection revenue: 20% of total revenue
• Geographical Advantage: Strong presence in Northeast China with completed LNG projects.
• Future Projects: Three more pipelines under construction, one expected to start operating in 4Q18.
• Capital Allocation: 60% of capital expense will be used for upstream and midstream business.
• Overseas Expansion: Considering investment opportunities in Southeast Asia.
• Stock Metrics:
  • Closed price: 9.73
  • Expected P/E: 14.11
  • Dividend yield: 2.02%
  • 52-week high: 10.08
  • 52-week low: 4.54
  • 14-day RSI: 86.4
• Recommendation: Accumulate when the stock consolidates.

Stock Market Activity

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

• ICBC (1398): Highest turnover with 1,383,886,360 RMB.
• CCB (939): Second highest turnover with 798,317,060 RMB.
• SUNAC (1918): High turnover of 509,055,200 RMB.
• TENCENT (700): Turnover of 466,259,960 RMB.
• GEELY AUTO (175): Turnover of 404,693,300 RMB.
• SUNNY OPTICAL (2382): Turnover of 307,162,080 RMB.
• PING AN (2318): Turnover of 191,000,575 RMB.
• NCI (1336): Turnover of 233,211,335 RMB.
• BANK OF CHINA (3988): Turnover of 229,589,817 RMB.
• HUANENG POWER (902): Turnover of 222,377,014 RMB.

Ten Most Actively Traded Stocks

• TENCENT (700): +0.27% change, turnover of 6,395 million.
• PING AN (2318): +1.63% change, turnover of 4,874.3 million.
• CCB (939): +2.39% change, turnover of 3,576.2 million.
• ICBC (1398): +2.77% change, turnover of 3,145 million.
• XIAOMI-W (1810): -1.10% change, turnover of 2,218.4 million.
• SUNAC (1918): 0.00% change, turnover of 1,686.7 million.
• SUNNY OPTICAL (2382): -2.93% change, turnover of 1,569.1 million.
• CM BANK (3968): +4.16% change, turnover of 1,274.5 million.
• BANK OF CHINA (3988): +1.40% change, turnover of 1,245.2 million.
• HKEX (388): +0.78% change, turnover of 1,231.5 million.

Short Sell Activity

Economic Calendar Highlights

• US:
  • Jun. Existing Home Sales: 5.46M (Prior: 5.43M)
  • Jul. Markit US Manufacturing PMI: Expected to be released on Tuesday.
  • Jun. New Home Sales: 670K (Prior: 689K)
  • Q2 GDP QoQ: Expected on Friday (Prior: 4.0%)
  • Q2 Personal Consumption: Expected on Friday
  • Q2 Core PCE QoQ: Expected on Friday
  • Jul. University of Michigan Sentiment Final: 97.3 (Prior: 97.1)
• Euro Zone:
  • Jul. Consumer Confidence: Prior: -0.5
  • Jul. Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: Prior: 54.9
  • ECB Rate Decision: Expected on Thursday.
• Hong Kong:
  • Interim Results: ASM PACIFIC (0522), HKELECTRIC-SS (2638) on Tuesday.
  • HUTCHTEL HK (0215): Interim Result on Wednesday.
  • CKI HOLDINGS (1038), POWER ASSETS (0006), SANDS CHINA (1928): Interim Results on Thursday.
  • FORTUNE REIT (0778): Interim Result, ZTE (0763) Q1 Result on Friday.

Summary of Key Points

• Market Sentiment: The HSI and HSCEI showed a rebound after a significant drop on Friday, supported by less tight regulatory changes and a weaker USD against RMB.
• Regulatory Impact: The draft rules on wealth management products are expected to provide stability and flexibility, potentially lowering short-term financial risks.
• Stock Performance: Financial stocks like CCB and ICBC outperformed, with strong price increases and high turnover.
• Tian Lun Gas: Secured long-term pipeline rights, enhancing revenue stability and geographical advantage.
• Futures Market: Both HSI and HSCEI futures showed increased volume and open interests, indicating higher market participation.
• Economic Outlook: Investors are closely watching US GDP data, ECB meeting, and potential trade talks, which could influence market direction.
• Investment Recommendations: Accumulate China banks during weakness, particularly CCB, and consider Tian Lun Gas when consolidation occurs.