BIS国际清算银行-Releasing-bank-buffers-to-cushion-the-crisis---a-quantitative-assessment_9页_745kb

BIS Bulletin No. 11 Summary: Releasing bank buffers to cushion the crisis – a quantitative assessment

Core Content

This BIS Bulletin evaluates the potential of bank capital buffers to support additional lending during the Covid-19 crisis. It provides a quantitative analysis of how much capital banks could release, based on different stress scenarios and policy interventions.

Main Points

• Global Bank Capital Buffers: At end-2019, banks globally had approximately US$ 5.1 trillion of CET1 capital above their regulatory minimum requirements, representing 6.4 percentage points of their CET1 ratio.
• Potential Buffers: The authors define "potential buffers" as the amount of capital that banks could release without falling below a 10% CET1 ratio, which is considered a safe level. This amounts to US$ 2.7 trillion before crisis-related losses.
• Stress Scenarios: Two stress scenarios are considered:
  • Adverse Scenario: Similar to the savings and loan crisis, with losses equivalent to 800 billion USD.
  • Severely Adverse Scenario: Similar to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), with losses equivalent to 270 billion USD.
• Usable Buffers: The usable buffers are the portion of capital that can be released for lending without violating regulatory thresholds. These are reduced by crisis-related losses.
• Additional Lending: The amount of additional lending that could be supported depends on the usable buffers and the efficiency of capital in supporting loans, which is affected by risk weights and bank behavior.
• Policy Considerations: The analysis highlights the need for a balance between supporting lending and preserving bank resilience. Public guarantees and regulatory flexibility can help increase the lending capacity supported by buffers.

Key Information

Capital Buffers Overview

Additional Lending in Stress Scenarios

Impact of Public Support

Severely Adverse Scenario

• Usable Buffers: Only 0.27 trillion USD remains usable.
• Additional Lending: Amounts to 1.1 trillion USD (1.3% of total loans).
• Public Guarantee Impact: If 20% of additional loans receive public guarantees, lending could increase to 2.6 trillion USD (3.1% of total loans).

Key Findings

• Lending Capacity: The ability of banks to support additional lending is limited by their capital ratios and the severity of the crisis.
• Regulatory Buffers: The capital conservation buffer (CCoB) and countercyclical buffer (CCyB) are key components that can be released in times of stress.
• Heterogeneity Across Jurisdictions: Countries with stronger capital buffers are better positioned to support additional lending during the crisis.
• Public Support: Public guarantees and policy interventions can enhance the effectiveness of capital buffers in supporting lending.

Policy Implications

• Supporting Lending: Policy needs to provide incentives for banks to lend to firms and households, especially in the context of a deepening crisis.
• Preserving Resilience: Safeguards are necessary to prevent capital ratios from falling to unsustainable levels.
• Long-Term Path: Policy should encourage banks to return to a sustainable capital path, including balance sheet repair and consolidation.

Conclusion

The Bulletin suggests that while bank capital buffers can support additional lending, their effectiveness is significantly reduced in severe crisis scenarios. Public support mechanisms, such as guarantees, can help mitigate this impact. However, the overall lending capacity remains constrained, and policymakers must carefully balance support with the need to maintain financial stability.