从远东到西方_天然气新版图的供与求（英文版）_14页_646kb

Summary of Far East to Wild West: Demand and Supply in the New Gas Landscape

Core Content

This report explores the evolving dynamics of the global gas market, focusing on the impact of supply changes, the shifting role of finance professionals, and the future outlook for liquefied natural gas (LNG). It highlights how the low and fluctuating oil prices and the rise of the US as a major gas producer are reshaping both the supply and demand sides of the market.

Main Points

1. The Impact of Supply

• Gas has become more attractive to buyers: LNG prices have dropped in line with oil prices, and the global supply of LNG is increasing.
• US as a major gas producer: The US is now a significant player in the global LNG market, with its first shipment to Asia in 2016. 79% of survey respondents believe the US's rise will have a serious impact on global gas markets.
• Supply growth: In 2016, 20 million tonnes per annum (mta) of LNG were tied up in projects awaiting investment. Global LNG production is expected to reach over 370 mta by 2020.
• Pricing pressures: The drop in oil prices has reduced the attractiveness of gas as a short-term investment, leading to a focus on long-term, reliable returns. This has slowed new drilling due to the risk of low prices.
• LNG vs. pipeline gas: LNG is more regionally priced and is typically traded under long-term contracts indexed to oil. This creates a link between the two markets, but the emergence of cheaper US LNG is starting to decouple them.

2. Changing Roles for Finance Professionals

• Increased complexity: With falling oil prices and shifting market dynamics, finance professionals are facing more complex and pressured roles.
• Pricing renegotiations: Companies are renegotiating long-term contracts, leading to increased scrutiny of project finance and pricing structures.
• M&A opportunities: The financial stress on some companies has created M&A opportunities, especially in North America. However, the expected wave of consolidation has not yet materialized.
• Cost management: Accountants are playing a key role in assessing the viability of new gas projects and managing costs in a low-price environment.
• Sustainability reporting: The gas sector is adopting integrated reporting, which includes sustainability efforts and long-term implications of moving towards cleaner fuels.

3. Outlook for LNG

• Growing spot market: The spot market for LNG is expected to grow as supply increases, especially with the emergence of cheaper US LNG.
• Long-term contracts under pressure: Buyers are increasingly renegotiating terms of long-term supply contracts, leading to a shift in favor of them.
• China's gas market: China is expected to become a major LNG importer, with its gas demand growing rapidly. It has also signed a major pipeline deal with Russia, which could provide cheaper gas in the future.
• Uncertainty and future outlook: While LNG projects are less attractive in the current price environment, the sector is adapting. The future of LNG is likely to be shaped by market liquidity, pricing structures, and the balance between supply and demand.

Key Information

• LNG price trends: LNG prices have dropped significantly, with Japan's average price falling from $13.90 per million British thermal units (mBtu) in January 2015 to $8.50 in February 2017.
• Survey insights: The report draws on survey data from 413 ACCA members, highlighting concerns about the future of LNG pricing and market dynamics.
• Global supply growth: LNG production is expected to increase to over 370 mta by 2020, driven by new projects in various regions.
• US shale gas: The US is becoming a major exporter of LNG, with potential to compete with traditional suppliers like Qatar and Algeria, and even challenge Russian pipeline gas.
• Financial focus: Companies are increasingly focusing on short-term cash flow and reliable returns, rather than long-term, high-risk projects.
• Geopolitical factors: Geopolitical instability is a growing concern for accountants, as it can impact gas prices and the viability of projects.

Conclusion

The gas market is undergoing significant transformation due to the rise in supply, particularly from the US, and the ongoing impact of low oil prices. This shift is forcing finance professionals to adapt to new challenges, including complex pricing structures, increased M&A activity, and a stronger emphasis on sustainability and cash flow. The future of LNG appears to be more buyer-friendly, with the spot market growing and long-term contracts becoming more flexible. As the market evolves, the role of finance teams will become even more critical in navigating these changes and ensuring the long-term viability of gas projects.