大中华区半导体全球人工智能供应链更新；亚洲半导体的关键机遇_57页_9mb

Morgan Stanley Greater China Technology Semiconductors Investor Presentation Summary

Date: September 19, 2025
Presented By: Charlie Chan, Daniel Yen, Daisy Dai, Tiffany Yeh

Key Points

1. Industry Outlook

   • Uppgraded Industry View to "Attractive" for 2H25, with strong AI focus.
   • Industry challenges: Tariffs, FX volatility; opportunities: AI-driven re-rating, memory shortages easing.
   • Cloud spending growth (US$582B in 2026), AI semi TAM: US$235B in 2025e, US$1T in 2030.

2. AI Semiconductor Leadership

   • TSMC: Top Pick (AI fabless, Foundry leader).
   • Edge/Inference: Inferencing chips growing faster (55% CAGR).
   • NVIDIA dominance, but China push to reduce reliance via TSMC (7nm) and local players (Huawei Ascend).

3. Investment Themes

   • CoWoS/SoIC/HBM: Critical for AI compute density/bandwidth.
   • Memory: DDR4/NOR Flash short supply through 2H26; NAND/LSD short in 2026.
   • Lower Tier: China auto, consumer chips localization (e.g., MCU, auto semis).

4. Valuation Highlights

   • TSMC: 31x P/E, strong revenue growth; ASE: Leading back-end play.
   • China focus: SMIC (7nm progress), GigaDevice/Phison (NOR Flash).

5. China-Specific Opportunities

   • Auto semi self-sufficiency: From 15% in 2024 to 28% in 2027.
   • GPU: China self-sufficiency ratio ~34% in 2024; target 39% by 2027.

Analyst Recommendations

• Charlie Chan: Reiterate AI > Non-AI preference.
• Daniel Yen: Downside risks for Semiconductor/Power chips (FX, inventory cycles).
• Daisy Dai: Top Taiwanese plays: TSMC, ASE.
• Tiffany Yeh: Focus on logic vs memory decoupling, cloud capex drivers.

Key Metrics

• AI Chip Performance: NVIDIA L40S vs. Huawei Ascend910C + TSMC N4.
• TCO Analysis: ASICs vs GPUs competitive in training/inference with scaling.
• Demand Signals: Cloud capex, token processing, memory shortages.

Market Risks

• Inventory Cycles: Logic foundry utilization at 70-80%; memory oversupply risks.
• Geopolitical: U.S. Executive Order 14032 restrictions on semiconductor entities.

Visuals (Inferred from Report)

1. Sector Re-rating Chart: AI semis leading logic performance.
2. CoWoS Allocation Table: NVIDIA/AMD dominance.
3. HBM Consumption: Up to 24B GB in 2026.

Appendices

• TCOs: Edge vs Inference growth vectors.
• Roll-ups: China auto/GPU localization plays.

(For full details, see Morgan Stanley Greater China Tech Semi Report)