2019-07-12_DTZ戴德梁行_Office_Q4_2018_San_Francisco_4页_1mb

报告摘要

San Francisco Office Market Q4 2018 Summary

Core Content Overview

The San Francisco office market in Q4 2018 showed strong performance, driven by robust leasing activity, record high rents, and a significant reduction in vacancy rates. Despite a relatively flat net absorption for the quarter, the year ended with a record net absorption of 4.8 million square feet (msf). The market also saw substantial investment activity, with several high-value transactions expected to close in early 2019.

Key Market Indicators

Indicator	Q4 2017	Q4 2018	12-Month Forecast
Overall Vacancy	8.6%	6.4%	▼
Net Absorption (sf)	253K	216K	▲
Under Construction (sf)	6.5M	3.1M	▼
Average Asking Rent*	$71.02	$75.57	▲

Rental rates reflect full service asking $psf/year

Major Trends and Developments

Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate: San Francisco Metro unemployment dropped to 2.2%, below the previous year's 2.6%.
Job Growth: Total private sector jobs increased by 2.0% to 1,023,600, with office-using positions rising 2.5% to 397,400.
Record Rents: Overall asking rent reached a record $75.57 per square foot (psf), up 6.4% YOY. CBD Class A direct asking rent hit $82.12 psf, up 8.0% YOY.

Construction Activity

New Construction Deliveries: Office construction completions totaled 3.7 msf in 2018, all of which were pre-leased.
Under Construction: Just under 3.1 msf was under construction at the end of Q4 2018.
Future Projects: Key projects in South Financial, such as 633 Folsom and Oceanwide Center, remain pending, with deliveries scheduled for 2020 and 2022.

Tenant Demand

Tenant Requirements: There was 5.2 msf in tenant demand at the end of Q4 2018, down 1.2 msf from the third quarter but up nearly 750,000 sf from one year ago.
Large Block Demand: Large block demand (over 50,000 sf) increased 17% YOY and is expected to outpace supply through the end of the decade.

Leasing Activity

Q4 2018 Leasing: New leasing totaled 1.9 msf, with 8.9 msf for the year, marking the third highest year on record.
Key Lease Transactions:
- Google: Largest lease in Q4, 330,000 sf at One Market - Landmark.
- Salesforce: 325,000 sf at 550 Howard Street.
- Twilio: 216,000 sf at 101 Spear Street.
- DoorDash: 192,000 sf at 303 Second Street.
- WeWork: 103,000 sf at One Post Street.
- Pivotal: 84,000 sf at 875 Howard Street.
- iRhythm Technologies: 79,000 sf at 50 Beale Street.

Investment Activity

Transaction Volume: Total number of transactions in 2018 was in line with 2017, but several sales (most in-contract) were expected to close in Q1 2019.
High-Value Sales:
- The Ferry Building: Sold for $292 million at $1,217 psf, marking the top transaction by price per square foot.
- Embarcadero Square: Sold for $245 million at $834 psf.
- 55 New Montgomery Street: Sold for $64.25 million at $635 psf.

Outlook

Rent Growth: Continued rent growth is expected in 2019.
Large Block Space: Limited large block space will affect growth and relocation plans for major occupiers.
Tech IPOs: 2019 is anticipated to be a bellwether year for San Francisco tech IPOs, with companies like Uber, Airbnb, Lyft, and Pinterest considering public listings.
Class A vs. Class B Gap: The gap between Class A and Class B office buildings is widening, with Class A rents at $79.27 psf and Class B at $66.14 psf.

Submarket Performance

Submarket	Inventory (sf)	Sublet Vacant (sf)	Direct Vacant (sf)	Overall Vacancy Rate	Net Absorption (sf)	YTD Net Absorption (sf)	Leasing Activity (sf)	Under Construction (sf)	Avg Asking Rent (All Classes)	Avg Asking Rent (Class A)
North Financial District	26,517,916	276,477	1,768,421	7.7%	397,794	1,275,161	2,767,531	0	$76.89	$81.23
South Financial District	27,524,244	682,762	1,429,011	7.7%	-343,745	1,588,584	3,852,999	2,071,500	$79.91	$80.35
CBD	54,042,160	959,239	3,197,432	7.7%	54,049	2,863,745	6,620,530	2,071,500	$78.13	$80.81
Jackson Square	1,490,806	0	52,200	3.5%	13,212	65,135	184,888	0	$66.27	$59.00
North Waterfront	3,238,808	61,206	185,227	7.6%	26,589	-59,952	306,019	0	$59.73	$64.82
SOMA	8,180,959	40,181	209,946	3.1%	115,964	316,278	1,087,405	0	$70.98	$72.68
The Presidio	1,030,627	0	8,664	0.8%	0	0	7,697	0	$90.00	$90.00
Union Square	3,173,989	15,014	170,540	5.8%	-6,045	59,685	155,560	0	$68.82	$76.26
Van Ness Corridor	785,956	12,986	53,229	8.4%	-10,865	-47,310	3,459	0	$53.49	$54.33
Showplace Square / Potrero Hill	3,874,042	64,073	53,933	3.0%	26,447	966,671	241,719	0	$64.91	$59.74
Mission Bay	1,771,735	0	0	0.0%	0	715,000	0	1,023,000	N/A	N/A
Third Street Corridor	349,465	0	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0	N/A	N/A
Total	82,280,598	1,158,062	4,112,004	6.4%	216,148	4,838,667	8,897,130	3,094,500	$75.57	$79.27

Office Class Breakdown

Class	Inventory (sf)	Sublet Vacant (sf)	Direct Vacant (sf)	Vacancy Rate	Net Absorption (sf)	YTD Net Absorption (sf)	Leasing Activity (sf)	Under Construction (sf)	Avg Asking Rent (All Classes)	Avg Asking Rent (Class A)
Class A	58,746,711	989,475	2,842,986	6.5%	24,628	4,446,287	6,664,267	3,094,500	$79.27	-
Class B	16,203,775	116,471	1,049,733	7.2%	83,788	382,954	1,690,042	0	$66.14	-
Class C	7,330,112	52,116	219,285	3.7%	107,732	9,426	542,821	0	$65.28	-

Contact Information

For more information, contact:

Derek Daniels
Senior Research Analyst
Tel: +1 415 773 3543
Email: derek.daniels@cushwake.com
Jason Karbelk
Senior Research Analyst
Tel: +1 415 568 3422
Email: Jason.karbelk@cushwake.com

About Cushman & Wakefield

Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm, with 48,000 employees across 400 offices in 70 countries. In 2017, the firm had revenue of $6.9 billion, covering property, facilities, and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation, and other services. The firm is known for delivering exceptional value to real estate occupants and owners.

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