2024-11-10-世界银行-以发展消解非正规性（英）_43页_463kb

Fading Away Informality by Development Summary

This report analyzes the role of economic development in reducing informality, defined as unregistered economic activities. Using data from 78 countries, it finds a negative correlation between GDP per capita and the average size of informal plants, even after controlling for plant characteristics. A dynamic general equilibrium model shows that development, through higher wages and expanded production possibilities, reduces informal mean plant size but may increase the share of subsistence informality. Quantitative results indicate that a 29.5% increase in aggregate output from productivity gains reduces the informal mean plant size by about 26% and accounts for 32.8% of income per capita differences across countries. Development policies, such as improving business environments and education, are more effective than direct formalization policies like tax reductions or enforcement increases in reducing informality.

Key Findings

• Empirical Evidence: Informal plants in wealthier countries employ fewer workers per plant. For example, Ghana has 2.3 workers per informal plant, while Peru has only 1.4.
• Model Results: As economies develop, informal plant managers transition to formal employment or become workers due to higher wages. The model matches these patterns in Ghana.
• Policy Comparison: Exogenous improvements in managers' productivity yield greater informal reduction than tax or enforcement policies, with output gains limited to around 20% under formalization efforts.

This study contributes to development economics by highlighting development as a primary driver of informality reduction, complementing existing literature on policies.