世界银行-非正规性与植物的生命周期（英）-2025.1_44页_839kb

Informality and the Life Cycle of Plants in Mexico: Growth Disparities and Economic Impacts

Abstract

This study analyzes the life cycle productivity growth and size scaling of formal and informal plants in Mexico, showing:

• Formal plants start significantly larger (~6.1 vs ~1.9 workers) and grow faster during their lifecycle (~136% size increase vs ~77%).
• Informality arises from incomplete enforcement, allowing informal plants to remain small and shaded from taxes and penalties.
• A general equilibrium model demonstrates that revenue-neutral policies improving enforcement or reducing formal burden could increase aggregate output by ~16% and overall plant growth by ~25%.

Key Findings & Methods

1. Data: Uses 20 years (1998-2018) of Mexican census data, defining formality based on registration status with tax/social security authorities. While larger establishments are more likely formal, registration rates are higher among larger firms.
2. Plant Dynamics:
   • Formal plants enter with >3x the workforce of informal plants.
   • Formal plants grow nearly 70% faster over their lifecycle than informal plants.
   • Young formal plants significantly larger than young informal plants at all ages.
3. Model & Mechanism:
   • Combines growth (like GPV) with informality/incomplete enforcement dynamics.
   • Incentive to keep small/escape tax drives informal plant slower investment/growth.
   • Model well-calibrated to data: plant size distribution, employment concentration, informal share, growth rates.
4. Policy Impacts:
   • Reducing the output tax (e.g., half) increases formal plant numbers and growth but decreases informal plant numbers/sizes; it also increases the fraction of informal plants transitioning to formal later (~5.8% vs ~1.9%).
   • Revenue-neutral increases in enforcement (full execution) increases aggregate output by ~16%, lowers average size of newer entrants, and raises average lifetime growth rate by ~25% (though average size increases to ~7.8 workers).

Conclusion

Informality significantly hinders aggregate economic growth and plant productivity in Mexico primarily by suppressing the growth rates of informal establishments. Improving enforcement or reducing formal burdens through revenue-neutral policies presents a powerful tool for boosting overall economic performance.