20130920-Maybank_KERPL-REIT_DEALS_Reprieve_for_interest-rate_sensitives_16页_379kb

报告摘要

Real Estate Investment Trusts Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), focusing on the Singapore REITs (S-REITs) and their performance in the context of global economic conditions, particularly the Federal Reserve's decision to continue quantitative easing (QE3) in September 2013. It also includes updates on REIT-related news and market data.

Main Points

Fed's QE3 Decision

The Federal Reserve (FED) decided to continue QE3, maintaining monthly purchases of USD40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and USD45 billion in longer-term Treasury securities.
Markets had expected a reduction in the asset purchase program by USD10 billion to USD15 billion.
The FED's decision was seen as cautious, due to concerns about economic stability and the potential negative impact of tapering on markets.

Market Reaction

US stocks rose, and the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 15 bps to 2.70%.
S-REITs rallied by 3.0% following the decision, with the most significant gains in the Healthcare, Office, Retail, Industrial, and Hospitality sectors.
The yield spread for S-REITs was at 402 bps, above the historic average of 380 bps, indicating potential recalibration needed for sustainable growth.

Asian Economic Context

The recent Asian sell-off is attributed to deeper issues such as hyper credit growth and inflated asset prices, rather than just tapering fears.
The Singapore government's cooling measures and TDSR framework are steps toward curbing the real estate bubble.
The overall sector is maintained as UNDERWEIGHT due to concerns over sustainability and potential volatility.

REIT Deals and Acquisitions

Suntec City reopens after a year-long renovation, expanding its retail space and attracting luxury brands.
Amara is considering launching a hospitality REIT, potentially listing its assets in an IPO.
Parkway Life REIT acquires five nursing home and care facility properties in Japan, enhancing its portfolio and geographical diversification.

Key Information

REIT Performance

S-REITs: Market cap of S$46,352 million, with a yield of 6.2% and a yield spread of 402 bps.
HK-REITs: Market cap of HK$22,211 million, yield of 5.1%, and yield spread of 299 bps.
M-REITs: Market cap of S$11,476 million, yield of 5.3%, and yield spread of 160 bps.
Thai Prop Fund: Market cap of S$6,603 million, yield of 5.5%, and yield spread of 146 bps.
J-REITs: Market cap of S$69,604 million, yield of 3.6%, and yield spread of 288 bps.

Interest Rates

SG 10Y Govt Bond: Last yield 2.15%, with a 1D change of -21 bps.
HK 10Y Govt Bond: Last yield 2.16%, with a 1D change of -13.7 bps.
MY 10Y Govt Bond: Last yield 3.66%, with a 1D change of -5.1 bps.
THAI 10Y Govt Bond: Last yield 4.00%, with a 1D change of -20.3 bps.
JP 10Y Govt Bond: Last yield 0.68%, with a 1D change of -2.8 bps.
US 10Y Govt Bond: Last yield 2.75%, with a 1D change of +6.4 bps.
SIBOR 3M: Last yield 0.37%, with a 1D change of 0.0 bps.
HIBOR 3M: Last yield 0.39%, with a 1D change of 0.0 bps.
KLIBOR 3M: Last yield 3.20%, with a 1D change of 0.0 bps.
BIBOR 3M: Last yield 2.60%, with a 1D change of 0.0 bps.
TIBOR 3M: Last yield 0.23%, with a 1D change of 0.0 bps.

REITs with Buy Ratings

Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust (SUN SP): Last price SGD1.705, target price SGD1.90, upside 17%, FY13 yield 5.4%.
CapitaMall Trust (CT SP): Last price SGD2.01, target price SGD2.15, upside 12%, FY13 yield 5.5%.
Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT SP): Last price SGD0.81, target price SGD0.95, upside 23%, FY13 yield 6.2%.
CDLHT (CDREIT SP): Last price SGD1.62, target price SGD1.80, upside 19%, FY13 yield 7.4%.

REITs with Hold Ratings

AREIT (AREIT SP): Last price SGD2.37, target price SGD2.45, upside 10%, FY13 yield 6.3%.
CACHE (CACHE SP): Last price SGD1.205, target price SGD1.25, upside 11%, FY13 yield 7.1%.
MLT (MLT SP): Last price SGD1.105, target price SGD1.13, upside 9%, FY13 yield 6.4%.
CCT (CCT SP): Last price SGD1.45, target price SGD1.28, downside 6%, FY13 yield 5.4%.
KREIT (KREIT SP): Last price SGD1.245, target price SGD1.15, downside 1%, FY13 yield 6.3%.

Figures and Charts

Figure 1: Regional REIT Performance – Includes market cap, price changes, yield, and yield spread for S-REITs, HK-REITs, M-REITs, Thai Prop Fund, and J-REITs.
Figure 2: Key Interest Rates – Shows the last yield and changes in bps for various key interest rates.
Figure 3: FTSE REIT Index Yield VS SG Risk-Free rate – Highlights the yield spread between REITs and the Singapore risk-free rate.
Figure 4: S-REITs % change from 22 May – Indicates performance since the time of Bernanke's Congressional Testimony.
Figure 5: S-REITs % change from 52-wk high – Shows performance relative to the 52-week high.
Figure 6: S-REITs Sub-Sectors Yields and Spreads – Provides sector-specific yield and spread data.
Figure 7: S-REITs Table – Lists detailed performance metrics for individual REITs.

Conclusion

The document outlines the impact of the Fed's QE3 continuation on Asian REITs, particularly S-REITs, and highlights the need for recalibration in the market due to inflated asset prices and rental rates. It also presents recent developments in the REIT sector, including new listings, acquisitions, and performance data. The overall sector is maintained as UNDERWEIGHT due to the potential for market volatility and the need for more sustainable growth.

展开完整摘要