2023-12-06-国际清算银行-货币政策_金融状况和实际活动_这次不同吗_9页_702kb

Summary of BIS Bulletin No. 80: "Monetary policy, financial conditions and real activity: is this time different?"

During the current monetary tightening episode, financial conditions co-moved closely with policy rates, particularly in the initial phase, though country-specific variations existed. For advanced economies, the tightening was stronger than past episodes, with its impact on real activity potentially lasting longer due to factors like low real interest rates and structural changes.

A key finding is that financial conditions may tighten even after central banks cease rate hikes, posing risks to financial stability and economic activity. Real activity responded with resilience, partly due to excess savings and fiscal support, but this could change as costs rise, especially in EMEs.

Compared to historical tightening cycles, this episode shows tighter conditions emerging sooner, highlighting the need for careful calibration of monetary policy moving forward. The bulletin suggests that continued policy adjustments depend on how financial conditions evolve and the path of inflation and disinflation.