2025-03-16-国际清算银行-收益率曲线上的货币政策_央行会影响长期实际利率吗_（英）_63页_1mb

Summary

The paper explores how central banks influence long-term real interest rates despite theoretical constraints. It introduces a FLANK model (Finitely-Lived Agent New Keynesian model) that incorporates life-cycle forces, showing that persistent policy-induced interest rate changes have limited effects on economic activity. This occurs because life-cycle considerations (e.g., retirement savings) offset intertemporal substitution effects, leading to a near-zero net impact of persistent rate changes on aggregate demand and inflation.

Key findings include:

• Life-cycle forces make monetary policy transmission "wealth-centric," allowing central banks to set long-term interest rate goals independently with minimal economic consequences.
• The model challenges the traditional role of the natural rate (r^*) as a binding constraint for policy, as central banks can keep rates far from (r^*) without significant inflation or output responses.
• Empirical evidence from high-frequency data shows that "target" shocks (affecting short-term rates) have conventional effects on activity, while "path" shocks (affecting longer-term rates) have little to no impact or perverse effects, supporting the model's predictions about yield curve dynamics.

This work provides a new theoretical foundation for understanding monetary policy transmission and long-term rate movements, with significant implications for central bank operations in scenarios of "low-for-long" rate environments. However, it leaves unresolved the "forward guidance puzzle" regarding central bank information effects.