国际清算银行-货币政策、金融状况和实际活动：这次不同吗？（英）-2023.11-9页_681kb

The report analyzes the evolution of financial conditions and their impact on real economic activity during the current monetary tightening cycle, comparing it to past episodes in advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). Key questions addressed include whether this tightening is different and how policy changes affect the economy.

• Financial conditions have shown two distinct phases: an initial tightening phase in late 2022, driven by rising interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar, followed by a broader differentiation across countries. In AEs, financial conditions co-moved closely with policy rates from the start, whereas in past episodes, there was often a lag. In EMEs, the synchronization was weaker historically.

• Factors contributing to differences include supply-driven inflation from pandemic and war disruptions, which amplified the tightening's impact in AEs. Additionally, structural changes like higher shares of fixed-rate long-term debt and increased intangible assets have muted the effect of policy rate hikes on debt burdens and investment.

• Real activity response is delayed, with impacts taking longer than usual. Resilience in some AEs stems from low real interest rates by historical standards, structural factors delaying debt service impacts, and supportive fiscal policies. However, tighter financial conditions may eventually slow activity, leading to risks like credit losses.

• The full impact of monetary tightening is yet to unfold, and future challenges include potential financial stress, especially if EMEs navigate dollar fluctuations and inflation persistence. Policy should consider inflation trajectories and buffer capacities to mitigate risks of sharp slowdowns or stagflation.