2025-05-22-Jefferies-电池储能-重新审视投资案例_9页_299kb

UK Battery Storage Investment Analysis Summary

Investment Case

• Battery Storage Investment Case: Increasing intermittent generation in GB heightens power price volatility, supporting long-term investment in battery storage. Ancillary services market saturation from 2023 means revenues are now more tied to power price trading.

Key Market Trends

Power Price Volatility

• Day-ahead power prices have significantly increased in frequency and amplitude (e.g., occurrences of prices exceeding £100/MWh or falling to £0/MWh).
• Increased interquartile ranges and standard deviation confirm higher volatility compared to pre-COVID levels.

Balancing Mechanism (BM)

• BM prices have reduced volatility since 2023 but remain above pre-COVID levels.
• Fluctuations in BM volumes align with changes in wind/solar generation, increasing the role of BM participation for optimizing battery revenues.

System Efficiency and Grid Code

• Skip rates have remained stable under standard conditions but increased under system short conditions.
• New grid code modification GC0166 is expected to reduce skip rates; pending regulatory approval by July.

Analysis by Company

Gresham House Energy Storage

• NAV: Incl. accrued income and cost.
• RATING: BUY (total return expectation ≥15%)
• Key View: Investment case strengthened by exposure to growing renewables, but risks include declining ancillary services or price spreads, and construction delays.
• Highlights: NAV driven by system-level trends; revenues linked to trading spreads.

Gore Street Energy Storage Fund

• NAV: 64.00p, same as Gresham House.
• RATING: HOLD (total return between -10% and +15%)
• Key View: Steady performance expected amidst volatility, though system inefficiencies may restrict revenue upside.
• Risks: Declining ancillary services, narrowing intraday spreads, construction delays.

Valuation & Risk Factors

• Market Efficiency: Ongoing inefficiencies limit revenue potential.
• Regulatory/Macro Risk: Grid code changes and policy shifts could enhance opportunities (GC0166 pending implementation).
• Financial Risk: Standard deviation and skip rates negatively affect revenue if not addressed.

Analyst Notes

• Buy rating for Gresham House (GRID) based on total return potential, despite NAV same as the fund.