2025-05-22-Jefferies-恩吉昂（ENOG）_初步观点2025年第一季度交易更新-生产指引小幅调整_8页_142kb

Energean is a gas-focused oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) company operating primarily in the Eastern Mediterranean, with key assets in Israel and Egypt, and listed on the FTSE 250 and Tel Aviv 90 exchanges.

The equity research report maintains a HOLD rating for Energean with a price target of 920p, representing a +5% upside from the current price of 872.50p. This rating reflects inline performance with minor negative factors.

Financial highlights include strong production metrics: 1Q25 production stood at 145kboe/d (84% gas), a +2% increase year-on-year but -5% compared to the prior-year average of 153kboe/d. For FY25, production guidance was updated to 155–165kboe/d (mid-point lower versus previous indicative 160–175kboe/d due to flat production in Israel year-on-year). Net debt increased to $3.08bn in 1Q25 (+4% from year-end 2024), with a target of $2.8–3.0bn for FY25, resulting in a reduced net debt/EBITDAX ratio to 2.7x. The quarterly dividend of 30cts/sh continues, providing a ~10% annualized yield and will be paid June 30.

Key operational developments include the ongoing completion of the second oil train on the Karish FPSO by late 2Q25, the Katlan development progressing on schedule with first gas expected in H12027, and plans to book capacity on the Nitzana export pipeline to boost sales in Egypt. Energean also declared a 30cts/sh dividend for 1Q25.

Valuation is supported by a price-to-NAV of 732p and EV/EBITDA multiples. Upside risks include potential growth in gas demand in Israel, new export routes, and successful exploration activities. Downside risks involve weak gas demand leading to negative free cash flow and increased leverage.

Overall, the report suggests a cautious outlook, with a HOLD rating and muted upside due to near-term guidance updates and operational milestones.