2025-05-22-Jefferies-第一太阳能（FSLR）_重新审视东南亚与关注外国实体（FEOC）可能从混乱中创造机会_15页_1mb

Equity Research Summary: First Solar (FSLR)

Rating and Price Target:
Jefferies maintains a Hold rating on First Solar with a new price target of $157. The previous target was $127. The upgrade reflects a revised outlook from the FEOC restrictions in the House bill, which could support higher shipment volumes from Southeast Asia (SEA) if reciprocal tariffs are not raised significantly. However, tariff risks persist, and near-term volatility from IRA/45X uncertainty remains a concern.

Market Outlook and Assumptions:

• The FEOC restrictions and potential repeal of Section 48E under recent House legislation may encourage developers to rush on projects and secure FSLR SEA modules, especially with a 60-day safe harbor window. This could drive increased backlogs, though timelines are uncertain.
• Near-term demand is cautious due to macroeconomic factors and U.S. political developments, with data centers and utilities as key drivers. Long-term opportunities exist, but SEA utilization rates are expected to trend lower due to competitive pressures and potential supply chain recalibration post-IRA clarity.
• Sourcing risks include material costs and logistics, but FSLR's thin-film technology and domestic focus may provide a premium in pricing.

Financial Estimates:

• Revenue for 2025 is estimated at $5.0 billion, up from $4.2 billion, with shipments rising to 17.4 GW. 2026 revenue is $6.04 billion, and 2027 is $6.22 billion.
• EBITDA is projected at $2.3 billion for 2025 (up 5% from prior estimates) and $3.3 billion for 2026, supported by higher ASPs and moderate margins post-IRA. However, ex-45X margins face pressure from lower SEA utilization and operational costs.
• EPS is raised to $15.53 for 2025 and $24.17 for 2026, assuming favorable scenarios. Cost structurally, SEA manufacturing is becoming less economical due to tariffs and logistics, but U.S. production benefits from domestic content adders, supporting ASP premiums.

Valuation and Sensitivity:

• The $157 price target is derived from an equal-weighted average of DCF (excluding 45X credits, valued separately at $83), EV/EBITDA (8.2x, yielding $90), and P/E (12.7x, yielding $44).
• Upgrades in revenue and margin estimates justify the valuation increase, but the Hold rating reflects short-term uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis shows that an early IRA phase-out or heightened tariffs could reduce the target by about $3 to $154.
• DCF assumptions include low terminal growth (5.0%) and a cost of equity of 11.2%, with NPV contributions from future cash flows.

Key Risks:

• IRS rules and tariff disputes remain dominant risks, affecting interstate and reciprocal tariff structures. Currency fluctuations and logistical challenges could also impact margins.
• Long-term demand depends on the U.S. manufacturing expansion under IRA, but if 45X phasing reduces credits, margins could deteriorate. Competition in SEA may pressure FSLR's market share.

Conclusion:
First Solar is positioned to benefit from its U.S.-based manufacturing and thin-film technology, with a strong LT thesis. Near-term execution risks from political and macroeconomic factors temper the Hold rating, leaving upside potential if SEA volumes materialize under eased conditions.