2025-06-13-Jefferies-加拿大每日动态2025年6月13日_13页_280kb

Household Credit Market Debt to Disposable Income

Data Points

• Statistics Canada reports the ratio of household credit market debt to disposable income rose to 173.9% (seasonally adjusted), up from 173.5% in Q4 2024.
• This ratio is still below the peak of 179% at the start of 2024.
• The Debt Service Ratio held steady at 14.40%. Mortgage debt dominated credit market debt (~75%), with variable rates becoming popular again.

Key Insights

• Household debt still outpaces disposable income slightly (174 cents per dollar), though the pace of increase has moderated recently.
• Aggregate debt servicing pressures are considered curtailed due to income keeping pace with debt payments.
• Interest rate dynamics create trade-offs between cheaper new mortgages and higher renewal costs.

Company Updates

Recent Deals & Finances

• goeasy Ltd (GSY): Exceeded its $5 billion loan portfolio mark (from ~$4B in June 2024). Aims to reach ~$7.3B-$7.7B by 2027. Added ~43k new customers in Q1 2025.
• Canadian Banks/Insurers: Mixed analyst views. RBC, TD rated "Buy," while others like BNS, CM rated "Hold." General Bank performance noted in the earnings review section.

Coverage Universe (Target Prices & Ratings)

• Target prices and rating types ("Buy", "Hold", "Underperform") are provided for specific companies.
• Positive RBC, TD coverage. Neutral views on BNS, CM. Mixed perspectives on insurers like MFC, SLF, GWO.

Upcoming Events

• Friday: Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales.
• Monday: New Housing Starts, resale activity & prices.
• There will be further releases throughout the week.

Summer Job Market & Economic Indicators

• Youth unemployment (15-24) remained elevated at 14.2%, more than double the overall rate.
• Returning student jobless rate surpassed 20%.

Analyst Insights & Forecasts (Covered in Tail Section)

• Commentary on bank credit scenarios.
• Notes on bank earnings performance (TD, BMO, CM).
• Brief remarks on insurance sector stability and P&C issues.
• gosy metrics and outlook.

Key Charts Figuratively Represented

• Debt-to-Income Ratio Trend Chart.

Company Valuation/Ratings Information

• Jefferies provides target prices, buy/sell recommendations, and Zacks/Rydex ratings.
• Defines Buy/Hold/Underperform criteria.
• Includes analyst certifications and disclosures regarding conflicts of interest and research processes.