外交政策研究所-土耳其对俄罗斯-乌克兰危机的反应（英）-2022.1-26页_11mb

Summary of "Turkey's Response to the Russia-Ukraine Crisis" by Aaron Stein

Core Content

This report examines Turkey's strategic position and its response to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, focusing on its defense relationships with both Russia and Ukraine. It explores how Turkey's actions in the region have implications for U.S. interests and NATO cohesion.

Main Points

• Turkish-Ukrainian Defense Relationship:

  • Turkey has provided Ukraine with the TB2 drone, which has been used effectively in conflicts such as Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh.
  • The relationship is not the primary cause of Russian discomfort regarding NATO support for Ukraine, but it could be used to justify Russian military actions.
  • The TB2 is not a decisive game changer in the Russian leadership's assessment of the conflict's risks.
  • Turkey's cooperation with Ukraine is driven by its need for defense equipment, especially turbofan engines for its indigenous fighter programs.

• Arms Embargo and FMS Blockade:

  • The U.S. imposed an arms embargo on Turkey following the 2019 invasion of Syria, which involved the use of Western-origin equipment.
  • The embargo was extended to the FMS program, halting support for Turkey's defense purchases.
  • These embargoes have prompted Turkey to seek alternative suppliers, including Ukraine, for its defense needs.

• S-400 Purchase and U.S. Reaction:

  • Turkey's purchase of the S-400 air defense system from Russia was a major turning point in its defense policy.
  • The U.S. warned Turkey that this purchase would result in its expulsion from the F-35 program, which Turkey ignored.
  • The U.S. eventually imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey in 2020, further straining relations.
  • Turkey was removed from the F-35 consortium in 2019, costing its defense industry billions in contracts and disrupting its modernization plans.

• Turkish Defense Industrial Strategy:

  • Turkey has long sought to develop an indigenous defense industry, using offset agreements to build capabilities.
  • The S-400 purchase led to a shift in policy, with Turkey moving away from relying on U.S. defense equipment.
  • Turkey is now pursuing an indigenous low-observable fighter, TF/X, and exploring partnerships with Ukraine for engines and other systems.

• Geopolitical Balancing Act:

  • Turkey's relationship with Russia is complex and functional, despite bureaucratic distrust.
  • Turkey aims to maintain a balance between its alliance with NATO and its strategic ties with Russia.
  • The country's leadership has been increasingly willing to pursue closer ties with Russia, especially in the wake of the failed 2016 coup and the U.S. response.
  • Turkey has also sought to use its relationship with Ukraine to demonstrate its anti-Russian stance, even though the two countries maintain a cooperative defense relationship.

Key Information

• Strategic Context:

  • The report highlights Turkey's efforts to position itself as an independent actor in the Black Sea region.
  • Turkey's actions are influenced by its domestic political landscape, including the rise of the AKP and its Islamist orientation.
  • The failed 2016 coup significantly altered Turkey's foreign policy trajectory, leading to closer ties with Russia and a more assertive stance toward NATO.

• Defense Industry Developments:

  • Turkey's defense industry is increasingly reliant on local production and partnerships with non-Western suppliers.
  • Ukraine has become a key supplier of engines and other components for Turkey's indigenous fighter programs.
  • The TB2 drone, produced by Baykar, is a symbol of Turkey's growing defense capabilities and its strategic leverage in the region.

• Implications for U.S. Interests:

  • Turkey's growing ties with Russia and Ukraine could be used by Moscow to justify military actions.
  • Despite potential risks, Turkey is not likely to face direct repercussions for its relationships with these countries.
  • The U.S. is concerned about the erosion of its influence over Turkey's defense procurement and the potential for Turkey to develop a more autonomous defense sector.

Conclusion

Turkey's response to the Russia-Ukraine crisis reflects a complex and strategic balancing act between its NATO alliance and its own national interests. The country's defense relationships with both Russia and Ukraine are significant, with implications for regional stability and U.S. foreign policy. As Turkey continues to develop its indigenous defense capabilities, it may further distance itself from Western allies, complicating the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe.