2025-05-19-Jefferies-杰纽特集团（GEN）_2025年4月更新-年初表现稳健_10页_175kb

Genuit Group Equity Research Summary

Rating: BUY
Price Target: 526p (+31% from current price)

Key financial highlights:

• 4m25 performance: Solid start to the year with LfL sales growth of +5.3% YoY, improving from +0.5% in H2 24, though helped by easier comparables.
• Earnings: Adjusted EBIT of £97.7m (JEFe) exceeds consensus.
• Valuation: 13.5x 2026E P/E, comparable to peers despite structural growth drivers.

Business outlook:

• Diversified end markets; residential new build showing recovery, commercial improving.
• Strength in Sustainable Building Solutions and Climate Management Solutions.
• Anticipated margin pressure due to higher National Insurance and minimum wage but potential offset from pricing and market share capture.
• Potential upside from regulatory tailwinds, M&A opportunities, and ESG targets.

Investment thesis:

• High-quality stock with above-market growth and focus on margins; well-protected against macro risks due to diversified exposure.
• Post-COVID demand for ventilation and sustainable products.
• DCF-based valuation with WACC of 8.9%, perpetual growth rate of 2.75%.

Catalysts:

• Regulatory support for sustainability; faster adoption of key products; accretive M&A activity.
• Risks include UK economic conditions, slower product penetration, cost inflation, or inability to meet demand.

Key metrics:

• LfL sales momentum forecast: 1H25 +5%, 2H25 +3.5%; LfL sales potentially conservative as pricing ramps up.
• Adj. EBITDA margin steady at 20.7%, impacted by rising costs but supported by productivity gains.

Forward guidance:

• Base case: 7% sales growth average pa over 2025-28E.
• Upside scenario: Higher sales growth, potentially reaching 729p.
• Downside scenario: Slower growth at 296p, -26% from current.