IRENA-绿氢成本下降—扩大电解槽规模以满足1.5℃气候目标（英文）-2020.12-106页_3mb

Summary of "Green Hydrogen Cost Reduction: Scaling up Electrolysers to Meet the 1.5°C Climate Goal"

Core Content

This report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) outlines the key strategies and policy considerations for reducing the cost of green hydrogen production, with a specific focus on scaling up electrolyser technology to meet global climate goals, particularly the 1.5°C target.

Main Viewpoints

• Green Hydrogen's Role: Green hydrogen, produced using renewable electricity, is essential for decarbonising sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as steel, chemicals, shipping, and aviation.
• Cost Barriers: Green hydrogen is currently 2–3 times more expensive than blue hydrogen, which is produced from fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS). The cost of renewable electricity is a major driver of green hydrogen cost, and reducing it is crucial for competitiveness.
• Key Cost Drivers: The report identifies the electrolyser as the second-largest cost component after electricity. Reducing electrolyser costs is vital for making green hydrogen a viable and economical energy carrier.
• Cost Reduction Potential: The report suggests that through various strategies, green hydrogen production costs could be reduced by 40% in the short term and up to 80% in the long term. It estimates that by 2030, green hydrogen could be competitive with blue hydrogen in many countries, and by 2040, it could be cheaper than any low-carbon alternative.
• Technological Innovation: The report highlights the importance of innovation in electrolyser design, materials, and manufacturing to achieve these cost reductions. It discusses the potential of different electrolyser technologies, such as Alkaline, PEM, AEM, and Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOEC), and their respective advantages and disadvantages.
• Policy and Market Support: Governments and stakeholders must support innovation and scale-up through clear policy signals, regulatory frameworks, and market design. This includes setting deployment targets, tax incentives, mandatory quotas, and promoting common standards and certifications.
• Learning Rates and Deployment Pathways: The report shows that learning rates for electrolyser technologies are similar to those of solar PV, with potential reductions of 16–21% in costs. Aggressive deployment pathways are essential to accelerate cost reductions.

Key Information

Electrolyser Technologies

Cost Reduction Strategies

1. Stack Design and Manufacturing:

   • Increasing module size and stack manufacturing can significantly reduce costs.
   • For PEM electrolyzers, a production scale of 1,000 units (1 MW) per year could lead to nearly 50% cost reduction in stack manufacturing.

2. System-Level Improvements:

   • Standardisation of system components and plant design can lower the cost of the surrounding infrastructure.
   • Modular plant designs and integrated electricity and hydrogen storage can improve system flexibility and efficiency.

3. Materials Innovation:

   • Scarce materials like iridium and platinum are a key cost barrier, especially for PEM electrolyzers.
   • Solutions include reducing reliance on these materials and developing alternatives.
   • AEM electrolyzers do not require scarce materials, making them more scalable and cost-effective.

4. Learning-by-Doing:

   • Learning rates for electrolyser technologies are estimated at 16–21%, similar to solar PV.
   • Deployment at scale is expected to drive significant cost reductions, with a potential 40–80% reduction by 2050.

Project Pipeline and Deployment

• By 2020, 5 countries had announced hydrogen strategies, and by 2021, nearly 20 had done so.
• Industry investors plan to deploy at least 25 GW of electrolyser capacity by 2026.
• To meet climate goals, much steeper growth in both renewable power and electrolyser capacity is required.
• The report estimates that electrolyser manufacturing capacity must reach 100 GW/year by 2030 to support the necessary deployment.

Milestone-Driven Approach

• A milestone-driven approach is proposed to accelerate the scale-up of green hydrogen.
• This includes short-term (up to 2030), medium-term (2030–2040), and long-term (2040–2050) strategies aimed at reducing costs and improving performance.
• The report highlights the importance of collaboration across the hydrogen value chain, including across borders and sectors.

Conclusion

IRENA emphasizes that the transition to green hydrogen requires a coordinated effort across the entire value chain. With the right policies, technological advancements, and market mechanisms, green hydrogen can become a cost-effective and scalable solution for decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors. The report serves as a strategic guide for stakeholders, including governments, industry, and investors, to accelerate the deployment of green hydrogen technologies and meet global climate objectives.