20250926-华泰期货-新能源及有色金属日报_节前备货带动去库不改累库预期_6页_1mb

Summary of Zinc Market Report (2025-09-26)

The report discusses zinc market conditions, focusing on recent trends influenced by seasonal demand and inventory dynamics.

Key Data:

• Spot Market: LME zinc现货升水 at $59.64/ton. SMM上海锌现货价 at 21870 RMB/ton with升贴水-55元. SMM广东锌现货价 at 21890 RMB/ton with升贴水-70元. Tianjin锌现货价 at 21870 RMB/ton with升贴水-55元.
• Futures Market: SHFE zinc主力合约 opened at 21935 RMB/ton, closed at 22045 RMB/ton (+130元), with 158,280 contracts traded and 131,286持仓. High reached 22060, low 21890.
• Inventory: SMM zinc inventory totalled 15.04万吨, down 0.65万吨. LME zinc inventory was 43,800 tons, down 600 tons from previous day.

Market Analysis: Pre-holiday stockpiling boost demand, contributing to inventory drawdown despite overall accumulation expectations. Overseas zinc stocks continue depleting, supporting prices due to rising premiums, while domestic consumption shows improvement but supply pressures persist. Strategies are neutral, with risks including potential overseas supply disruptions, domestic consumption declines, and unexpected liquidity changes.

Strategy and Risks:

• Strategy: Single-side trading is neutral; arbitrage opportunities are also viewed as neutral.
• Risks: Points include overseas mine supply disruptions, domestic consumption underperformance, and unanticipated liquidity shifts.
  尽管节前备货导致库存短暂减少，但累库趋势预计持续，受海外市场库存去库和国内需求支撑的影响。国内供应压力较大，但进口矿TC上涨可能会缓解部分压力。

Overall, the zinc market remains balanced, with neutral outlooks for trading strategies due to mixed supply-demand factors and external risks.