20230928-IMF-Vietnam_Technical_Assistance_Report-Macroeconomic_Framework_Technical_Assistance–Ministry_of_Planning_and_Investment_Scoping_Mission_34页_733kb

Vietnam Macroeconomic Framework Technical Assistance (TA) Scoping Mission Summary

Background

Vietnam requested technical assistance to strengthen its capacity in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting through the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI). The project aims to establish a Core Working Group (CWG) to improve the analytical framework and coordination across government ministries. The scope includes institutional coordination, data management, capacity building training, and economic reforms since Vietnam is facing multiple economic challenges from the pandemic recovery and global factors.

Scoping Mission Findings

• Vietnam’s current macroeconomic analysis lacks a unified multi-sector framework. Analysis is fragmented, each ministry uses its own tools, and data sharing is limited.
• Existing data management challenges include delays in data publication, inconsistencies, and bureaucratic obstacles in accessing information.
• The CWG requires basic training on Fund principles (e.g., Fiscal Programming and Policies) due to a lack of familiarity with standardized frameworks.
• Institutional coordination, especially the newly formed inter-ministerial CWG, has room for improvement to facilitate smooth policy-making processes.

Action Plan

The 3-year (2023-2026) project will develop an Excel-based tool to enhance forecasting and analysis. The approach involves:

• Core Objective: Institutionalize a macroeconomic projection tool (MPT), linked to consistent data, and integrate into Vietnam's policy cycles.
• Max Phases:
  1. Development of foundational tools (MFT/ DDT)
  2. Progressive enhancement to include advanced features (CAEM)
  3. Expansion to incorporate monitoring and nowcasting.

Risks & Mitigation

• Staff Turnover: Limited training capacity, addressed via early training programs and documentation.
• Data Availability: GoI to centralize data initiatives, SAMAD portal to consolidate statistics.
• Coordination: CWG formal structures will be backed by ministerial decisions and alignment with “1317” policy mechanisms.

Impact

Successful TA will support evidence-based policymaking, enhance IMF coordination, and streamline macroforecasting cycles. A gradual approach ensures sustainability by building institutional capacity within manageable steps, preparing for long-term integration.