20180612-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_392kb_392kb
报告摘要
Dim Sum Express Summary
Core Content Overview
The document provides a market performance summary and detailed analysis of two Hong Kong-listed companies: Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) and Sunny Optical (2382 HK). It also includes general market data, rating definitions, and analyst certifications.
Market Performance (Key Indexes)
| Market | 1D Chg (%) | 1M Chg (%) | YTD Chg (%) | 18E EPS (%) | 19E EPS (%) | 18E P/E | 19E P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | 0.3 | -0.2 | 3.8 | 42.2 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 11.0 |
| HSCEI | 0.1 | -1.4 | 4.0 | 24.3 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 7.4 |
| MXCN | 0.5 | 1.9 | 7.0 | 57.1 | 15.8 | 13.5 | 11.6 |
| SHSZ300 | 0.0 | -2.4 | -6.2 | 34.8 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 11.0 |
| SHCOMP | -0.5 | -3.5 | -7.7 | 39.9 | 13.6 | 12.0 | 10.6 |
| SZCOMP | -0.6 | -4.6 | -8.3 | 76.5 | 22.9 | 19.0 | 15.4 |
| INDU | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 40.4 | 8.7 | 16.6 | 15.3 |
| SPX | 0.1 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 46.3 | 9.9 | 17.5 | 15.9 |
| CCMP | 0.2 | 3.5 | 11.0 | 82.3 | 15.3 | 23.1 | 20.0 |
| UKX | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 169.0 | 6.3 | 14.0 | 13.2 |
| NKY | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 61.5 | 14.7 | 16.7 | 14.6 |
Company Analysis
Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK, Buy)
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Key Points:
- Mengniu has improved operating efficiency following internal structure reform.
- The company is entering a "strategically offensive" mode, with plans to launch new products in 2018.
- FIFA-related marketing campaigns will enhance brand influence and provide tailwinds for revenue.
- Gross margin is expected to improve due to new products and better product mix.
- China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) is now under Mengniu's management, which will improve counter-cyclical cooperation.
- The 2018 infant formula registration policy is expected to drive improvements in Yashili's (1230 HK) profit margins.
- The company's cooperation with Lingshoutong and Huixiadan will boost distribution efficiency in lower-tier cities.
- Long-term growth engines include supply chain enhancement and internationalization.
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Earnings Forecast:
- 2018E EPS: Rmb0.79
- 2019E EPS: Rmb1.02
- 2020E EPS: Rmb1.29
- P/E ratios: 28.97x (2018E), 22.26x (2019E), 17.65x (2020E)
- Target Price (TP): HK$33.88
- Based on DCF valuation.
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Risks:
- Food safety risks
- Lower-than-expected new product sales
- China Modern Dairy's earnings missing expectations
Sunny Optical (2382 HK, Buy)
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Key Points:
- Handset lens set shipments rose 70% YoY in May (61% YoY in April).
- CCM shipments grew 58% YoY in May (35% YoY in April), with a 19% MoM increase.
- Vehicle lens set shipments increased 20% YoY but decreased 7% MoM.
- The smartphone supply chain has returned to the upcycle seen in 1Q17-3Q17.
- The company is expected to meet its CCM shipment guidance for the year.
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Earnings Forecast:
- 2018E EPS: Rmb4.13
- 2019E EPS: Rmb6.48
- 2020E EPS: Rmb8.80
- P/E ratios: 33.2x (2018E), 21.2x (2019E), 15.6x (2020E)
- Target Price (TP): HK$224.3
- Based on 45.5x 2018E P/E (1x PEG on 45.5% 2018-20 EPS CAGR).
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Risks:
- Intensified US-China trade frictions
- Downstream smartphone sales falling short of expectations
- Lower-than-expected penetration of dual cameras
- 3D sensing R&D slower than expected
Rating Definitions
| Rating | Relative Performance |
|---|---|
| Buy | Outperform benchmark by >15% |
| Accumulate | Outperform benchmark by 5%–15% |
| Hold | Relative performance between -5% and 5% |
| Underperform | Underperform benchmark by >5% |
Sector Ratings
| Sector Rating | Relative Performance |
|---|---|
| Positive | Outperform benchmark by >10% |
| Neutral | Relative performance between -10% and 10% |
| Cautious | Underperform benchmark by >10% |
Analyst Certification
- The views expressed in the report reflect the personal opinions of the analysts.
- No part of the analysts' remuneration is directly or indirectly linked to the specific recommendations in the report.
Disclosure of Interests
- GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold shares in the mentioned securities.
- No investment banking relationship with the companies in the past 12 months.
- Analysts and their associates are not officers of the companies and have no financial interests in the securities.
Disclaimer
- This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
- The information may be subject to change without notice.
- The proprietary trading division may have different investment decisions from the report's recommendations.
- Recipients should seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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