20180606-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_437kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of market performance and sector trends, focusing on the Hong Kong and Macau markets, with particular attention to the hog cycle and Macau's gaming sector. It also includes company and sector ratings, as well as disclosures and disclaimers regarding the research report.

Market Performance

Market	1D Chg (%)	1M Chg (%)	YTD Chg (%)	EPS 18E (%)	EPS 19E (%)	P/E 18E	P/E 19E
HSI	0.3	3.9	3.9	42.2	10.4	12.2	11.0
HSCEI	0.1	3.1	4.7	24.0	10.3	8.3	7.5
MXCN	0.5	6.3	7.2	56.9	15.8	13.5	11.7
SHSZ300	1.0	1.9	-4.6	35.5	15.1	12.9	11.2
SHCOMP	0.7	0.7	-5.8	40.1	13.5	12.2	10.8
SZCOMP	1.7	-0.6	-6.4	76.0	23.3	19.4	15.8
INDU	-0.1	2.2	0.3	40.3	8.8	16.3	15.0
SPX	0.1	3.2	2.8	46.1	10.0	17.3	15.7
CCMP	0.4	5.9	10.6	82.0	15.4	23.1	20.0
UKX	-0.7	1.6	0.0	167.7	6.0	14.0	13.2
NYK	0.1	0.3	-0.9	61.1	15.0	16.5	14.3

Key Market Insights

Hog Cycle Dynamics: The typical hog cycle in China lasts 3-4 years and involves a cycle of rising prices, increased sows, oversupply, price decline, reduced sows, and eventual price increase. The current market is in the phase of price decline and reduction of breeding sows.
Hog Price and Inventory Trends: Hog prices are still declining, and inventory has decreased since March 2017. The time lag between inventory changes and price movements helps stabilize prices.
Slaughter Numbers: The number of hogs slaughtered is the most direct determinant of hog prices, with a significant negative correlation between slaughter numbers and prices.
Hog-to-Corn Price Ratio: This ratio is a key profitability indicator for the hog industry.

Macau Gaming Sector

May GGR Performance: May GGR growth was 12.1% YoY, missing expectations. The decline in the last 11 days of May was likely due to a lower VIP win rate and police crackdowns on illegal currency exchanges.
Visitor Arrivals: Mainland visitor arrivals continued to grow strongly, with ex-Guangdong arrivals being a key driver. April 2018 hotel occupancy reached a new high at 89.5%.
Infrastructure Impact: The upcoming Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge is expected to boost ex-Guangdong visitor arrivals, which have been constrained by airport capacity.
World Cup Impact: Previous World Cups had minimal impact on Macau's GGR and gaming share prices. With a relatively low comparable base in June 2017, GGR in June 2018 is expected to maintain strong YoY growth.

Investment Ratings

Company Ratings

Buy: Stock expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 15%
Accumulate: Stock expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold: Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform: Stock expected to underperform the benchmark by more than 5%

Sector Ratings

Positive: Sector expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral: Sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious: Sector expected to underperform the benchmark by more than 10%

Risks and Considerations

Market Risks: Unexpected changes in the economy.
Macau Risks: Potential tightening of visa policies, stricter forex controls in China, a full smoking ban within casinos, intensifying competition from other Asian casinos, and risks related to casino concession extensions.

Disclaimer and Disclosure

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold any shares of the securities mentioned.
The research analyst(s) certify that the views expressed accurately reflect their personal opinions.
No liability is accepted for any loss arising from the use of the report, unless excluded by law.