20140526-巴黎银行证券-EM_Flows_Tracker_11页_1mb

报告摘要

FX & IR EM Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document provides a detailed overview of foreign investment flows and foreign exchange (FX) reserve changes in emerging markets (EM), focusing on Asia, CEEMEA (Central and Eastern European Markets, Middle East and Africa), and Latin America (LATAM). It highlights the performance of equity and bond markets, as well as the ownership levels and trends of foreign investors.

Main Points

Equity Flows

Overall EM Equity Flows: EM equity funds recorded inflows of nearly USD 1bn, while developed market equity funds saw outflows of about USD 8bn.
Asia: All countries except Thailand saw portfolio inflows, though at a slower pace. Korea bond flows turned slightly negative, India continued to attract strong inflows, and Thailand experienced accelerated equity outflows and ongoing bond outflows.
CEEMEA: Hungary saw minimal net inflows despite a rally in government bonds, while South Africa experienced outflows from government bonds but had strong inflows in the previous two weeks.
LATAM: Brazil and Mexico recorded robust equity inflows for the 9th and 8th consecutive weeks respectively. Mexico also attracted USD 101.82mn in bond inflows, with a foreign participation rate increasing to 40.73% as of May 13th.

Bond Flows

Asia: Net bond inflows continued, with India, Korea, and Indonesia being major contributors. Thailand continued to see outflows.
CEEMEA: Turkey saw a decline in foreign bond holdings, but increased 5-year bond holdings. South Africa had outflows from government bonds following inflows in the prior weeks.
LATAM: Latin America bond markets saw USD 63.79mn in inflows for the 8th consecutive week. Mexico outperformed Colombia and Brazil, with strong bond inflows. Brazil and Mexico also saw significant equity inflows.

FX Reserve Accumulation

Asia: FX reserves showed varying trends across countries, with some experiencing inflows and others outflows. The data includes monthly changes and 3-month moving averages.
CEEMEA: FX reserves showed mixed results, with some countries experiencing net inflows and others outflows. The data includes monthly changes and is sourced from central banks and Bloomberg.
LATAM: FX reserves showed a mix of inflows and outflows, with Mexico and Brazil being notable for their inflows.

Key Information

Asia

India: Continued to attract solid portfolio inflows.
Korea: Bond flows turned slightly negative, while equity inflows moderated.
Thailand: Remained the weakest link with accelerated equity outflows and ongoing bond outflows.
Indonesia: Government bonds saw net inflows, though not all types were covered.
Philippines: Government bonds and equity inflows were reported, but no breakdown between asset classes was provided.

CEEMEA

Turkey: Foreign bond holdings declined, but there was an increase in 5-year bond holdings.
Hungary: Despite a government bond rally, non-resident inflows were minimal.
South Africa: Non-resident outflows from government bonds followed by inflows in the previous weeks.

LATAM

Mexico: Attracted USD 101.82mn in bond inflows and USD 116.97mn in equity inflows.
Brazil: Continued to see strong equity inflows, with USD 160.96mn in the latest week.
Foreign Participation Rate: In Mexico, the foreign participation rate increased to 40.73% as of May 13th.

Summary of Charts

Chart 1: EM equity vs. EM bonds flows.
Chart 2: Weekly EM bond flows by currency type vs. JPM USD EM bond ETF.
Chart 3: Equity inflows: latest snapshot (USDmn).
Chart 4: Equity inflows: recent trends (USDmn).
Chart 5: EPFR weekly flows in all EM and Asia equities.
Chart 6: EPFR weekly flows in all EM and EMEA equities.
Chart 7: EPFR weekly flows in all EM and LATAM equities.
Chart 8: Asia bond inflows: recent trends (USDmn).
Chart 9: CEEMEA bond inflows: recent trends (USDmn).
Chart 10: LATAM bond inflows: recent trends (USDmn).
Chart 11: Asia FX reserves – monthly change.
Chart 12: CEEMEA FX reserves – monthly change.
Chart 13: LATAM FX reserves – monthly change.
Chart 14: Asia FX reserves – monthly change % 3mma.
Chart 15: CEEMEA FX reserves – monthly change % 3mma.
Chart 16: LATAM FX reserves – monthly change % 3mma.
Chart 17: India net debt and equity flows.
Chart 18: Korea net debt and equity flows.
Chart 19: Thailand net debt and equity flows.
Chart 20: Taiwan net equity flows.
Chart 21: Philippines net debt and equity flows.
Chart 22: Indonesia net debt and equity flows.
Chart 23: Korea debt ownership % outstanding.
Chart 24: Korea future-bond spread vs. foreign positioning.
Chart 25: Malaysia foreign ownership breakdown.
Chart 26: Malaysia monthly net foreign flows.
Chart 27: Philippines debt foreign ownership.
Chart 28: Philippines monthly net foreign flows.
Chart 29: Indonesia foreign ownership breakdown.
Chart 30: Indonesia monthly net foreign flows.
Chart 31: Thailand foreign ownership breakdown.
Chart 32: Thailand monthly net foreign flows.
Chart 33: Brazil foreign bond holdings.
Chart 34: Brazil monthly foreign bond flows.
Chart 35: Mexico foreign bond holdings.
Chart 36: Mexico weekly foreign bond flows.
Chart 37: Colombia foreign bond holdings.
Chart 38: Colombia monthly foreign bond flows.

Disclaimer

This document is a marketing communication and is not independent investment research. It may be subject to conflicts of interest and is not to be relied upon as an authoritative source. BNP Paribas may have financial interests in the mentioned issuers and may have acted upon the information before its publication. The information is provided for the assistance of recipients and should not be taken as an indication of future performance. No liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on this document.

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