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报告摘要

FX & IR EM Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the recent trends in foreign equity and bond flows into Emerging Markets (EM), with a focus on Asia, CEEMEA, and Latin America (LATAM). It also highlights the foreign bond ownership and foreign exchange (FX) reserve accumulation in these regions, along with key data sources and limitations of the information provided.

Main Points

EM Flows Tracker (08 September 2014)

EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa):
- EPFR equity flows remain slow, but do not match the price action in fixed income (FI).
- Most flows into the region come from crossover investors, who are underrepresented in the EPFR panel.
- Potential ECB balance sheet expansion is a key driver of EM flows.
Asia:
- Portfolio inflows increased slightly last week, led by equity inflows into India and Taiwan.
- Bond inflows into Korea, India, and Indonesia also gained momentum.
- Foreign holdings of Indonesian bonds reached a record high of 37% of outstanding in August.
- India had the strongest equity and bond inflows of +USD 1.5bn last week.
LATAM:
- Bond funds underperformed equity funds in attracting foreign flows, with USD 81mn vs. USD 372mn respectively.
- Brazil equity inflows account for ~70% of total LATAM equity inflows.
- Colombia reported a foreign participation rate of 13.40% in August, an increase of 0.9pp from the previous month.
- Foreign inflows since March total USD 7.2bn.
- Mexico has seen a gradual decline in foreign participation, currently at 36.8% as of August 27th, down from a peak of 38.1% in mid-July.
- Weekly outflows in Mexico between August 22nd and 29th reached MXN 55bn, the largest since 2011.

Equity Flows

Equity inflows have shown varied trends across different countries.
India and Indonesia had notable inflows in equity and debt markets.
Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia also saw inflows, though with varying degrees.
The EPFR weekly flows for EM and Asia equities indicate mixed performance with some countries showing positive inflows and others outflows.

Bond Flows

Asia:
- Korea saw a USD 0.3bn increase in foreign bond holdings, mainly from 2019 and 2024 bonds.
- India had a USD 2.8bn net bond inflow in August.
- Indonesia and Philippines also had significant inflows in bond markets.
- Thailand and Malaysia showed mixed inflows and outflows in bond ownership.
CEEMEA:
- South Africa and Turkey had notable increases in foreign bond holdings.
- Turkey experienced USD 0.3bn in bond inflows, primarily in 2019 and 2024 bonds.
- South Africa saw a substantial increase in foreign bond holdings, reflecting covering of underweight positions.
LATAM:
- Brazil and Mexico had significant foreign bond holdings.
- Mexico has seen a decline in foreign participation.
- Colombia reported a foreign participation rate of 13.40% in August.

FX Reserve Accumulation

Asia:
- FX reserves showed monthly changes, with India and Indonesia experiencing notable inflows.
- Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia had varying levels of FX reserve growth.
CEEMEA:
- FX reserves in South Africa and Hungary showed positive changes.
- Turkey also saw an increase in FX reserves.
LATAM:
- FX reserves in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia showed mixed trends, with Mexico experiencing a sharp decline.

Key Information

Data Sources:
- EPFR, BNP Paribas, CEIC, IMF, local stock exchanges, central banks, and other financial institutions.
Limitations:
- Daily equity flows are based on local stock exchanges, and may not reflect actual cross-border capital flows.
- Korea data refers to "net purchases" rather than "net investment", potentially overestimating inflows.
- Thailand data does not include flows to BoT bills and corporate bonds.
- Indonesia data covers all government bonds but not SBI bills and corporate bonds.
- Philippines data is based on BSP weekly data minus local equity inflows.

Summary of Regional Highlights

Asia

India led equity and bond inflows with +USD 1.5bn.
Indonesia saw record foreign bond ownership at 37% of outstanding.
Korea had USD 0.3bn in bond inflows, mainly in 2019 and 2024 bonds.
Thailand and Malaysia had mixed inflows and outflows in bond ownership.

CEEMEA

South Africa and Turkey had notable increases in foreign bond holdings.
Turkey saw USD 0.3bn in bond inflows, mainly in 2019 and 2024 bonds.
South Africa had substantial increases in foreign bond holdings, reflecting covering of underweight positions.

LATAM

Brazil and Mexico had significant foreign bond holdings.
Mexico has seen a gradual decline in foreign participation.
Colombia reported a foreign participation rate of 13.40% in August.
Brazil equity inflows account for ~70% of total LATAM equity inflows.

Contacts

Asia:
- Mirza Baig – Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore
- Jasmine Poh, Yii Hui Wong, Jennifer Kusuma, Ray Heung, Susan Chie, Rahul Gupta, Tony H Chen
CEEMEA:
- Piotr Chwieczak, Dina Ahmad, David Spiegel, Tatiana Tchembarova, Erkin Isik
LATAM:
- Gabriel Gersztein, Thiago Alday, James Z Hao, Damien Botton

Disclaimer

This document is a marketing communication and not independent investment research.
It may be subject to conflicts of interest due to interactions with sales and trading teams.
No liability is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from reliance on this document.
The information and opinions are based on public sources and may be subject to change.
BNP Paribas may be involved in transactions related to the instruments discussed.
The document is non-independent and not subject to legal independence requirements.

Distribution

Production and Distribution: Contact Barbara Consuelo, London.
Regulatory Information:
- UK: Approved by BNP Paribas London Branch.
- France: Approved by BNP Paribas SA.
- Germany: Distributed by BNP Paribas London Branch or Frankfurt Branch.
- US: Distributed to US major institutional investors only.
- Israel: No licence to offer investment advice.
- Japan: Distributed to certain financial institutions.
- Hong Kong: Regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Securities and Futures Commission.
- Australia: Directed to Wholesale clients only.
- Singapore: Regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Conclusion

The document outlines the current state of foreign capital flows into EM regions, with a focus on Asia, CEEMEA, and LATAM. It highlights trends in equity and bond inflows, foreign bond ownership, and FX reserve accumulation, while also noting data limitations and regulatory disclaimers. Key drivers include ECB balance sheet expansion, index rebalancing, and specific country performance. The information is provided for professional clients only and is subject to regulatory restrictions in various jurisdictions.