20140512-巴黎银行证券-EM_Flows_Tracker_12页_1mb

FX & IR EM STRATEGY Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the recent flows into Emerging Market (EM) equity and bond funds, as well as FX reserve accumulation, across key regions: Asia, CEEMEA, and Latin America (LATAM). It includes weekly and monthly data from EPFR and other sources, highlighting trends in foreign investment and ownership, along with caveats regarding data sources and limitations.

Main Points

Equity Flows

• Global EM Equity Flows: Weekly equity flows into EM equity funds turned negative for the first time in five weeks, with outflows of USD 700mn recorded for the week ending May 7th.
• Asia:
  • Bond inflows offset the slowdown in equity inflows.
  • Korea saw strong bond inflows, while Thailand experienced outflows due to political tensions.
  • India and Indonesia continued to see steady inflows in both equities and bonds.
• CEEMEA:
  • Hungary and South Africa experienced large inflows into local bonds.
  • Hungary's HGBs saw over USD 1bn in inflows, attributed to liquidity plans by the NBH.
• LATAM:
  • Mexico and Colombia showed continued inflows into bond markets.
  • Mexico's equity flows showed signs of fatigue, with a slight positive 1mo rolling inflow.
  • Brazil's equity flows remained positive at USD 888mn as of May 7th.

Bond Flows

• Asia:
  • Strong bond inflows in Korea, India, and Indonesia offset equity outflows.
  • Thailand experienced outflows in both bonds and equities.
• CEEMEA:
  • SAGBs (South African Government Bonds) had cumulative inflows of USD 2.5bn (excluding January).
  • Hungary and South Africa saw large non-resident bond inflows.
• LATAM:
  • Latin America bond markets saw USD 355mn in inflows for the week ending May 7th.
  • Mexico continued to see strong inflows, though the 1mo rolling total dropped.
  • Colombia reversed its April outflows with USD 128.8mn in inflows.

FX Reserve Accumulation

• Asia:
  • FX reserves showed monthly changes, with some countries like Korea and India experiencing positive trends.
  • The data includes forward book and valuation adjustments.
• CEEMEA:
  • FX reserves in Turkey, Hungary, and South Africa showed varying levels of accumulation.
• LATAM:
  • FX reserves in Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia showed changes, with Mexico continuing to attract significant foreign inflows.

Key Information

Data Sources and Caveats

• Equity Flows:
  • Data from local stock exchanges and EPFR.
  • Daily data may not reflect actual cross-border flows due to redemption and allocation timing.
• Bond Flows:
  • Data from local bond markets and central banks.
  • Some data sources may not cover all types of bonds, such as corporate or SBI bills.
• FX Reserves:
  • Data from central banks and Bloomberg.
  • Includes forward book and valuation effects.

Ownership and Flow Data

• Asia:
  • Korea: Foreign ownership of bonds reached 34.6% in April, close to the peak in July 2011.
  • India: Foreign ownership of bonds increased, with data sourced from SEBI.
  • Philippines: Bond ownership data is sourced from BSP.
• CEEMEA:
  • Hungary: Inflows into HGBs exceeded USD 1bn, likely due to liquidity plans.
  • South Africa: SAGBs saw cumulative inflows of USD 2.5bn.
• LATAM:
  • Mexico: Foreign bond holdings remained high.
  • Brazil: Monthly inflows into bonds were positive.
  • Colombia: Inflows reversed the outflows seen in April.

Conclusion

The document outlines a mixed picture of EM investment flows, with equity markets showing signs of fatigue and bond markets experiencing strong inflows. Political tensions in Thailand and the overall market dynamics in different regions highlight the varied nature of EM investment activity. The data provided is useful for understanding trends, but it is important to note the limitations and caveats associated with the sources.