20140407-巴黎银行证券-EM_Flows_Tracker_12页_1mb

FX & IR EM Strategy Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the flow of capital into emerging market (EM) bond and equity funds, as well as foreign ownership of local debt and FX reserve changes across different regions. The analysis is based on data from sources such as EPFR, BNP Paribas, and local financial institutions. It is classified as non-independent marketing communication and is intended for professional clients only.

Key Information

• EM Bond Funds: The week ending 2 April 2014 saw the second weekly inflow to EM bond funds this year, with inflows of just over USD 1 billion.
• EM Equity Funds: The first inflow into EM equity funds since November 2013, totaling approximately USD 2.5 billion.
• LatAm Fixed Income: Inflows into LatAm fixed income markets reached USD 597.6 million, similar to levels seen in May 2013. Mexico and Colombia were the main contributors with USD 173 million and USD 169 million respectively.
• Brazil Equity: Brazil equity attracted USD 425 million in inflows.
• Mexico Foreign Ownership: Foreign ownership of Mexican local debt reached 41.48% as of March 25th, similar to the previous week.
• Asia Equity Inflows: Portfolio inflows accelerated in Asia, with all countries experiencing equity inflows for the second consecutive week. Korea's inflows more than tripled compared to the previous week, while inflows into Taiwan and Indonesia also increased.
• Asia Bond Inflows: Inflows into Thailand and Korea accelerated, while those into Indonesia and India moderated due to upcoming elections.
• CEEMEA Bond Flows: South Africa and Turkey reported small outflows, while Hungary reported inflows of approximately USD 200 million.
• Turkey Bond Holdings: Foreign bond holdings decreased by USD 0.1 billion, mainly due to a decline in repos, while the stock market saw USD 0.1 billion in inflows.
• South Africa Bond Holdings: Foreign bond holdings were reported, but no specific figures were provided in the summary.
• FX Reserves: The document includes FX reserve changes in Asia, CEEMEA, and LATAM, with data showing both inflows and outflows. The information is adjusted for valuation effects and forward books where applicable.

Main Views

• Equity Inflows: There was a notable increase in equity inflows across EM and Asia, with Korea leading the way. In LATAM, equity inflows were reported in major markets.
• Bond Inflows: Bond inflows in Asia and LatAm showed mixed trends, with some countries experiencing increased inflows and others seeing moderation.
• Foreign Ownership: Foreign ownership of local debt varied significantly across countries, with Mexico and Korea showing high levels. The document also highlights that some data may not fully capture all types of bonds and may be subject to reporting limitations.
• FX Reserve Changes: FX reserves in various regions showed changes, with some areas reporting increases and others experiencing outflows. The data is presented in both absolute terms and as a percentage of three-month moving average (3mma).

Key Regions and Their Trends

Asia

• Equity Flows: All countries saw equity inflows for the second consecutive week. Korea's inflows more than tripled, while Thailand, Taiwan, and Indonesia also saw increases.
• Bond Flows: Inflows into Thailand and Korea accelerated, while those into Indonesia and India moderated due to elections.
• Foreign Ownership: Foreign ownership of Korean bonds reached USD 1.1 billion, with a significant portion in MSB. Thailand and Malaysia also had notable foreign ownership levels.

CEEMEA

• Bond Flows: South Africa and Turkey reported small outflows, while Hungary reported inflows of USD 200 million.
• Foreign Ownership: Data on foreign ownership in CEEMEA countries showed varying levels, with Hungary having the highest at 46.2% of outstanding bonds.

LATAM

• Equity and Bond Flows: Inflows into LatAm fixed income and equity markets were reported, with Mexico and Colombia as the main contributors to bond inflows. Brazil equity attracted significant inflows.
• Foreign Ownership: Mexico had 41.48% foreign ownership of local debt, with steady but small daily outflows reported.

Important Notes

• The document is a marketing communication and not independent investment research.
• It is non-objective and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• Data sources include local stock exchanges, central banks, and financial institutions, with some limitations in coverage and accuracy.
• The report is intended for professional clients and not for retail clients.
• All estimates and opinions are as of the date of the report and may not be updated.
• BNP Paribas may have financial interests in the mentioned entities and may be involved in investment banking services.