2025-05-15-Jefferies-美国银行贷款标准宽松周期可能推迟到2025年第四季度或2026年_10页_636kb

Equities Research: US Bank Lending Standards

Key Findings

• Jefferies expects banks to maintain tight lending standards through Q2 and Q3 2025, with easing potentially delayed until Q4 2025 or 2026.
• This delays industrial activity deceleration and affects chemical sector performance.
• Tighter standards are typically followed by weaker chemical stock performance, particularly for companies with weaker balance sheets.
• This analysis reinforces a preference for Buy-rated companies like AVNT and EMN for pro-cyclical trades.

Implication for Chemical Companies

• Tightening bank standards negatively correlates with chemical sector returns. Average 3-month returns are lower under tightening (+1.7%) than easing (+4.8%).
• Levered chemical companies with weaker balance sheets underperform significantly (e.g., 6.6% underperformance over 6 months).
• Chart indicators suggest that credit tightening leads to reduced industrial production and consumer demand.

Valuation and Recommendations

• Jefferies maintains Buy ratings on AVNT and EMN.
• AVNT's price target is $40, reflecting EPS of $3.20 in 2025; EMN's target is $95, based on industry multiples.
• Risks cited include end-market volatility, regulatory shifts, and M&A-related uncertainties.

-Laurence Alexander, Daniel Rizzo, Kevin Estok, Xianrao Zhu, Carol Jiang