【罗兰贝格】2014区域空中交通RAM解锁新一代出行方式研究报告_20页_267kb

Regional Air Mobility (RAM) refers to a sector that has experienced a decline since 1998 but shows potential for revitalization due to new technologies. The decline is primarily attributed to competition from large, low-cost airlines operating more efficient aircraft from major airports, reducing the market share and profitability of regional operators. As of 2023, investments in RAM have reached approximately USD 2 billion, excluding urban air mobility, but further investments are essential to exploit its full potential.

Key opportunities include the ease of implementation for next-generation RAM, which requires minimal new infrastructure changes, such as adding charging or hydrogen refueling facilities. Electric and hydrogen propulsion technologies could address cost and sustainability issues, complementing research for medium- and long-haul aviation. Three market trajectory scenarios are identified: a downsized market of USD 10 billion in 2050 under challenging conditions, a base case of USD 25 billion, and an optimistic outlook of USD 50 billion, depending on cost reductions and market acceptance.

Market drivers for growth include innovation in propulsion (e.g., electric, hybrid, hydrogen), improved battery performance, sustainable travel momentum, and increasing demand for convenient, climate-friendly options. Challenges involve high operating costs, infrastructure development (e.g., charging stations, air traffic management), certification complexities, and public acceptance, particularly in urban vs. rural settings.

Key takeaways:

• RAM's historical decline results from airline competition; however, new propulsion tech could reverse this.
• Market success depends on cost competitiveness, with potential for mass-market adoption if driven down ticket prices.
• Three scenarios predict RAM's future size, ranging from niche to mainstream options.

This summary highlights the transformative potential of RAM in reshaping aviation and regional mobility, contingent on technological and market advancements.