20230504-国联证券-固定收益点评_对2023年五一假期数据的点评-五一居民出游需求创新高_消费复苏了吗_8页_521kb

Summary of 五一居民出游需求创新高，消费复苏了吗——对2023年五一假期数据的点评

Key Findings

• Transportation: High growth during May Day holiday, with overall transport volumes up 1649% YoY, led by highways; other modes like railways saw marginal recovery.
• Tourism: Strong rebound in travel demand, domestic trips reaching 274 billion人次, restoring to 11909% of 2019 levels; popular destinations include Beijing, Shanghai, and new cities like Chengdu and Xi'an.
• Per Capita Consumption: Total tourism income higher than 2019, but per capita spending at 540元 still below 603元 in 2019, indicating weak consumer confidence recovery.
• Movie Market: Box office reached 151 billion, higher than 2022 but lower than 2019 and 2021 levels, partly due to preference for tourism over movies.
• Commercial Consumption: Retail and catering markets showed strong performance, with sales growth indicating enhanced consumer activity and positive economic signals.

Risks

• Slow improvement in consumer confidence, potentially delayed recovery; external liquidity crises could worsen impacts on the domestic economy.