世界银行-缅甸，2023年5月，特大气旋风暴莫查：全球灾后快速损失估计（GRADE）报告（英）-44页_2mb

报告摘要

Event: Extremely severe cyclonic storm hit western Myanmar, primarily affecting Rakhine State.
Economic Loss: Median estimate of direct damage: US$2.24 billion (3.4% of Myanmar’s 2021 GDP).
Hard-hit Sectors: Residential housing (49% of total losses), infrastructure, and agriculture.
Primary Damage Cause: Wind; flooding had a secondary impact.
Fatalities and Displacement: Estimated 148 deaths; over 1.2 million affected, many displaced.
Conflict Impact: The fragile, conflict-affected context worsened damages and hindered response.
Economic Comparison: Damages are one-third of those from the 2008 Nargis cyclone, adjusted for inflation.

80% of damages in Rakhine and Sagaing (Rakhine alone accounts for over 20% of total capital stock).
1.5 million+ people in Rakhine severely affected; nearly all buildings damaged in Sittwe township.

Housing (~49% of total damage, residential = 🏠, non-residential = ⬉, infrastructure, agriculture).
Agriculture losses include crop damage and livestock; direct impact on food security elevated to 'hunger hotspot'.
Infrastructure losses high (health, education, transportation), but wind impact was more severe than flooding.

Government authority limited in conflict zones, compounding the disaster response.
Pre-existing landmines and UXO pose new risks in flooded and damaged areas.
High concentrations of poor and IDP populations (especially in Rakhine) increase vulnerability.

Rakhine and Irrawaddy deltas are most exposed historically (Nargis 2008 being the worst prior event).
Frequency of cyclones increasing, with Bay of Bengal being a major hotspot for catastrophic storms.

GRADE Approach (Remote desktop analysis):
- Used satellite imagery, wind modeling, cross-referenced damage reports.
- Accountability for data gaps and conflicts through statistical modeling.

Methodology: Annex 1 details techniques for exposure/vulnerability/damage estimation.
Data Sources: Annex 2 lists sources (State agencies, UN reports, global datasets).

展开完整摘要