20150824-Maybank_KERPL-Grease_Spot_11页_782kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market in various Asian countries, highlighting recent price movements, company-specific news, and analyst ratings. It also includes detailed valuations and financial metrics for key players in the sector.

Key Market Movements

Crude Oil Prices:
- Brent fell by 2.5% to USD45.46/b, with a 1-month decline of 20.9%.
- WTI rose by 2.1% to USD40.45/b, with a 1-month decline of 21.2%.
LNG Prices:
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR fell by 0.1% to USD7.73/MMBtu, with a 1-month decline of 1.2%.
Fuel Prices:
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot dropped by 2.3% to USD232.14/mt, with a 1-month decline of 25.0%.
Gold and Currency:
- Gold increased by 0.7% to USD1,160.77/Oz, with a 1-month increase of 5.4%.
- USD-CNY remained stable at 6.39.

News Headlines

US Crude Settles Higher After Below-$40 Dip:
- US crude prices dipped below $40 per barrel for the first time since the 2009 financial crisis.
- The decline was due to signs of US oversupply and weak Chinese manufacturing.
- The US rig count increased by one to 885, indicating continued activity in oil drilling.
- North Dakota and Oklahoma each added 3 rigs.
Putin Hopes for Chinese Gift as Oil Slump Sours Second Gas Deal:
- Russia's energy pivot toward Asia faces challenges due to slumping oil prices.
- Gazprom is in talks for a second natural gas supply contract with China, but a deal is unlikely during Putin's visit to Beijing in September.
Santos Chief Departs After Profit Slump:
- David Knox, CEO of Santos, resigned due to a first-half profit slump.
- This highlights concerns about Australian resources companies in a low oil price environment.
Lukoil Completes Sale of 50% Stake in Five Kazakh Oil, Gas Fields to Sinopec:
- LUKOIL sold its 50% stake in five fields in Kazakhstan to Sinopec.
- The deal is valued at $1,087 million.
Oil Product Retail Margins Drop After China Cuts Fuel Prices:
- China's fuel price cuts led to a decline in retail margins for gasoline and gasoil.
- Margins dropped by CNY146/tonne to CNY1,819/tonne.

Analyst Ratings and Reports

Malaysia Oil & Gas:
- PETRONAS report card: NEUTRAL.
- BArmada, Dialog, Yinson, and KNM are BUY recommendations.
- Capital discipline is increasing, with capex/OPEX cuts expected.
NewOcean Energy:
- 1H15 results were slightly ahead of expectations.
- BUY recommendation with 118% upside.
Barakah Offshore Petroleum:
- Collaborates with Ocean Installer.
- BUY recommendation with MYR1.15 target price.
- O&G works are facing slowdown and deferral.
Perisai Petroleum:
- 2Q15 results were below expectations.
- SELL recommendation with MYR0.25 target price.
- Net profit forecasts were cut by 35%, 21%, and 13%.

Valuation Table (Asia Oil & Gas)

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price (21-Aug)	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USD b)	90D T/O (USD m)	PER (2015E)	PER (2016E)	EV/EBITDA (2015E)	EV/EBITDA (2016E)	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	6.63	8.30	271.2	110.3	19.3	12.4	6.3	5.3	4.3	0.8	2.3
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Hold	5.30	7.70	99.3	91.2	14.7	10.7	6.2	5.5	5.7	0.9	3.3
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	8.82	16.80	50.8	91.8	12.8	8.2	3.9	3.1	6.4	0.8	2.7
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	256.0	NR	33.1	17.0	9.2	8.5	4.7	4.3	13.3	1.2	3.9
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	908.0	NR	44.5	57.6	12.2	11.3	10.5	9.2	11.2	1.3	1.1
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Hold	141.7	198.00	4.0	7.5	3.9	6.6	1.1	1.8	11.7	0.4	6.4
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	889.7	NR	9.7	23.7	20.5	11.7	10.8	7.7	15.2	3.0	1.7
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	860.4	NR	4.4	23.0	22.0	10.8	10.5	7.9	8.8	2.0	1.9
Gas Malaysia	GMB MK	Buy	2.13	2.65	0.7	0.2	22.2	22.1	12.3	11.9	12.2	2.7	4.5
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	20.88	24.00	9.9	6.1	22.8	22.6	13.7	13.4	16.7	3.7	3.1
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	8.19	11.25	1.6	0.6	18.7	11.1	8.3	7.3	4.4	0.8	0.6
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	3.35	4.75	0.1	0.1	5.7	5.0	7.6	6.9	11.6	0.6	3.0
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	52.8	87.00	6.7	24.5	8.6	7.5	5.8	5.3	11.4	0.9	5.3
PTT PCL	PTT TB	Buy	265.0	395.00	21.2	55.0	8.7	7.8	6.1	5.8	11.5	1.0	4.5
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Sell	48.0	65.00	2.7	8.4	8.0	8.7	5.8	5.9	13.7	1.1	5.3
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	Buy	42,900	92,000	3.6	0.9	8.8	8.4	4.0	3.7	25.1	2.0	8.2

Key Takeaways

Oil prices have been under pressure, with Brent and WTI showing significant declines.
China has had a major impact on oil prices and retail margins, with fuel price cuts and a slump in oil demand.
Investor sentiment is mixed, with BUY recommendations for certain companies and SELL for others.
Capital discipline is becoming more prominent in the sector, with cost-cutting measures expected.
Market valuations vary by region and company, with CNOOC LTD and PTT Global Chemical PCL showing positive outlooks.

Analyst Contact Information

HK/CHINA: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
INDIA: Jigar Shah, (91) 2266232632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson, (63) 28498840, micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888×8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh, (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn