20230315-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_4页_737kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content Overview

This document is a Fixed Income Daily Market Update from the Fixed Income Department of CMB International Global Markets Limited. It provides a comprehensive overview of the Asia IG market performance, key issuer updates, trading desk comments, top movers, macro news, and important disclosures for investors.

Market Performance

• Market Sentiment: Improved compared to previous days, with Asian IGs initially tightening by 10-15bps but retreating by ~5bps by noon.
• Rate Volatility: Front-end IGs saw heavy trading due to increased rate volatility, which worsened liquidity and risk sentiment.
• CT2 Yield: Rose by 27bps to 4.261% during the PM session.
• IG Spreads: Broadly ended 10-20bps wider.
• Financials: Suffered from negative headlines on banks, with CS reporting material weakness in delayed financial reporting.
• Sector Performance:
  • T2s: Remain unloved with sellers on CCB/CINDBK/SHCMBK/UOBSP/OCBCSP.
  • BNKEA: Widened 20-30bps, with new issues marked at T + 250.
  • AMC: One-way selling.
  • China SOEs/TMTs: Widened 3-8bps.
  • China Property: Down 0.5-2pts amid RM selling.
  • Macau Gaming: MPELs/WYNMACs dropped 0.5-1.5pts.
  • Industrial Names: FOSUNI and HONGQI 25-26s traded 1.5-2pts lower.
  • Renewables: GRNKENs/RPVINs down 0.5-1.5pts.
  • India: VEDLNs dropped 0.5-1.75pts.
  • Indonesia: Quiet with thin flows.

Key Issuer Updates

• FOSUNI:
  • Sold 60% of Nangang to Shagang for RMB13.58bn.
  • Acquired 29.5% of Zhejiang Wansheng for RMB2.65bn.
  • FOSUNIs were unchanged to +0.5pt.
• VEDLN:
  • Media reported Vedanta received a preliminary term sheet for a USD1bn, four-year loan at SOFR + 800bps.
  • VEDLNs rose 0.1 to 0.75pt by mid-day.
• Onshore Primary Issuances:
  • 112 credit bonds issued yesterday with RMB93bn raised.
  • Month-to-date: 1,042 credit bonds issued, raising RMB876bn, representing a 14.8% yoy increase.
• Other News:
  • AGILE Group: Compulsory sale of Kowloon Tong luxury property approved by HK Lands Tribunal, with a base price of HKD966mn (cUSD123mn).
  • GEMDAL: Expected 48% drop in FY22 profit to RMB2.1-2.5bn.
  • GRNLGR: Greenland Holding remitted funds to cure USD coupons missed on 12 Feb'23.
  • LIANYU: Fitch affirmed Lianyungang Port at BBB, with stable outlook.
  • POLYRE: Plans to raise RMB2.5bn (cUSD364mn) via onshore notes.
  • RDHGCL: Deposited USD11.7mn into a designated bank account for interest payment.
  • SUNAC: Bondholder AHG agreed in principle to offshore restructuring, including USD3.7bn swap into equity.
  • TPHL: Unit of Times China obtained bondholder approval to extend RMB500mn onshore ABS due 2024.
  • VNKRLE: China Vanke to redeem RMB1.5bn 20Wanke01 bonds on 16 Mar.
  • ZHPRHK: Zhenro Properties may have no hair-cut in offshore liability management, with expected loss for FY22.

Trading Desk Comments

• Asia IG Market: Relatively calm opening, but turned better selling in the afternoon due to risk-off tone.
• AT1s: Marked down by FM sellers in the PM session, with HSBC 8 Perp lowering ~1pt but stabilizing at high-97 to low-98 due to PB flow support.
• HK AT1s: BNKEA/CHOHIN Perps lowered 0.5-2pts.
• Chinese AT1s: Resilient, closing unchanged to 0.25pt lower.
• Perps: Generally stable, with SOE Perps under better buying before UST yields rebounded.
• LGFVs: Saw selling out of NBRM and structured products due to weak sentiment.

Top Movers

Top Performers:

• GRNCH 2.3 01/27/25: Price 95.5, Change +2.0
• TINGYI 1 5/8 09/24/25: Price 91.5, Change +1.3
• SSW 5 1/2 08/01/29: Price 78.0, Change +1.0
• SANLTD 4 3/8 06/18/30: Price 85.1, Change +0.6
• ZJXCID 3.9 02/04/24: Price 99.8, Change +0.6

Top Underperformers:

• STCITY 6 1/2 01/15/28: Price 82.6, Change -2.4
• YLLGSP 5 1/8 05/20/26: Price 86.1, Change -2.2
• STCITY 5 01/15/29: Price 74.8, Change -2.0
• DALWAN 11 01/20/25: Price 91.9, Change -2.0
• DALWAN 11 02/13/26: Price 88.6, Change -2.0

Macro News Recap

• U.S. Stock Markets: Rebounded with S&P +1.68%, Dow +1.06%, and Nasdaq +2.14%.
• CPI Data: U.S. Feb CPI at +6.0% yoy, matching market forecasts.
• U.S. Treasury Yields: Rose slightly, with 2yr at 4.20%, 5yr at 3.78%, 10yr at 3.64%, and 30yr at 3.77%.

New Issues

• No Offshore Asia New Issues Priced Today.
• No Offshore Asia New Issues Pipeline Today.

Important Disclosures

• Risk Disclaimer: Investing in securities carries risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
• No Investment Advice: The report is for informational purposes only; no personalized advice is provided.
• Conflict of Interest: CMBIGM may have positions or engage in transactions in the securities of companies mentioned, which could affect the objectivity of the report.
• Legal Restrictions: The report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, or distributed without written consent.

Disclaimer

• UK Recipients: The report is only provided to individuals falling within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a)-(d) of the Financial Promotion Order 2005.
• US Recipients: CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the US. The report is intended for major US institutional investors only.
• Singapore Recipients: The report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser in Singapore, and is subject to Singapore regulations.

Contact Information

• Glenn Ko, CFA: (852) 3657 6235 | glennko@cmbi.com.hk
• Cyrena Ng, CPA: (852) 3900 0801 | cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk
• Jerry Wang: (852) 3761 8919 | jerrywang@cmbi.com.hk
• CMBI Fixed Income Department: Tel: 852 3761 8867 / 852 3657 6291 | fis@cmbi.com.hk