20220713-招银国际-卓胜微-300782.SZ-1H22_profit_alert__weak_2Q_market_dragged_performance_4页_953kb

报告摘要

Maxscend (300782 CH) Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This report provides an update on Maxscend's financial performance for the first half of 2022 (1H22), along with revised forecasts for FY22 and FY23. It highlights the challenges faced by the company due to a weak consumer electronics market, particularly in the second quarter (2Q22), while also noting positive developments in its RF component business.

Key Financial Performance (1H22)

Revenue: Estimated at RMB2,235 million, representing a 5.3% YoY decline and 32% QoQ drop.
Net Profit to Shareholders: Expected to fall between RMB713 million and RMB764 million, a 29.7% to 24.7% YoY decrease.
Net Profit Margin (NPM): Dropped 3.7% YoY to 30.8% in 2Q22.
Inventory Levels: High sector-wide inventory levels are cited as a contributing factor to the performance drag.

Revised Forecasts

FY22/23 Net Profit (NP): Revised down by 26% / 28% from previous estimates.
Target Price (TP): Trimmed from RMB173.75 to RMB138, based on a 36x FY22E P/E (approximately 1 standard deviation below the 2-year average).
Earnings Outlook: The weak consumer market conditions are expected to persist into the second half of 2022 (2H22), especially in the Android market.

Positive Developments

SAW Filter Development: Maxscend has made significant progress in developing and producing self-designed SAW filters, with mass production expected in 3Q22.
Localization Trend: The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trend of localization in the technology sector.
Market Position: Maintains a leading position in the domestic market and has a broader range of RF component offerings.

Financial Summary (FY21E)

Metric	FY20A	FY21E	FY22E	FY23E	FY24E
Revenue (RMB mn)	2,792	4,634	5,160	6,751	8,719
YoY Growth (%)	84.6%	66.0%	11.4%	30.8%	29.2%
Net Profit to Shareholders (RMB mn)	1,073	2,135	1,816	2,340	2,887
YoY Growth (%)	115.8%	99.0%	-15.0%	28.9%	23.4%
EPS (RMB)	3.31	4.01	3.83	4.94	6.10

Key Ratios

Ratio	FY20A	FY21E	FY22E	FY23E	FY24E
Gross Margin (%)	52.6%	57.7%	51.4%	49.9%	48.4%
Operating Margin (%)	48.4%	51.6%	40.9%	40.3%	38.5%
Net Margin (%)	41.6%	44.4%	35.2%	34.7%	33.1%
ROE (%)	40.3%	27.9%	19.8%	20.7%	20.8%
Current Ratio (x)	6.6	6.6	4.8	4.6	4.1
Inventory Turnover Days	(138)	(196)	(210)	(210)	(210)

Investment Recommendation

Rating: BUY (Maintain)
Target Price: RMB138.00
Current Price: RMB119.19
Up/Downside: +15.8%
Potential Upside: M&A opportunities
Potential Risks:
- Weakened consumer demand
- Intensified competition
- Slower-than-expected R&D
- Further deterioration in macroeconomic conditions

Stock Data

Metric	Value
Market Cap (RMB mn)	63,617
Avg 3 mths Turnover (RMB$ mn)	801
52w High/Low (RMB$)	306.25/101.5
Total Issued Shares (mn)	533.7

Shareholding Structure

Shareholder	Percentage
WX HUIZHI UNITED INVENT	12.79%
Feng Chenhui	7.87%
Tang Zhuang	7.67%

Analysts

Lily Yang, Ph.D.
Tel: (852) 3916 3716
Email: lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk
Alex Ng
Tel: (852) 3900 0881
Email: alexng@cmbi.com.hk
Lana Lin
Tel: (852) 3761 8912
Email: lanalin@cmbi.com.hk

CMB International Global Markets Limited

Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3900 0888
Fax: (852) 3900 0800

Important Disclosures

The report is for informational purposes only and not tailored to individual investors.
CMBIGM does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investors should consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Regulatory Information

United Kingdom: Report is only for persons within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 or Article 49(2) (a) to (d) of the Order.
United States: Report is only for "major US institutional investors" as defined under Rule 15a-6.
Singapore: Distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited, an Exempt Financial Adviser regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.