联合国贸发组织：今年全球经济增长预期可能下降1_-35页_1mb

Summary of the Trade and Development Report Update: Tapering in a Time of Conflict

Core Content

The Trade and Development Report Update (2022) highlights the significant economic and financial challenges facing the global economy due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the subsequent macroeconomic tightening in advanced economies. The report emphasizes the need for a coordinated multilateral policy response to mitigate the adverse effects on developing countries.

Main Views

• Global Economic Fragility: The post-pandemic recovery has been uneven and fragile, with the war in Ukraine intensifying these challenges. The global economy is expected to slow in 2022, with growth projected at 2.6% compared to 5.6% in 2021.

• Impact of the Ukraine War: The war has caused exchange rate instability, surging commodity prices, and supply chain disruptions, especially for food and fuel. These pressures threaten the economic stability of developing countries, which are more vulnerable to price shocks and currency depreciation.

• Macroeconomic Tightening in Advanced Economies: Central banks in advanced economies are raising interest rates and reducing asset purchases, which has led to fiscal and monetary tightening. This shift is dampening domestic activity and global demand, exacerbating the challenges for developing economies.

• Regional Economic Impacts:

  • Europe: Suffering from high commodity prices and energy dependence, especially Germany. The French economy may be somewhat resilient due to nuclear energy and food exports.
  • Asia: The Chinese economy faces slower growth due to supply shocks and a resurgent pandemic. The Republic of Korea and other East Asian economies are affected by trade volatility and rising commodity prices.
  • Africa: Expected to see lower growth in 2022, with mixed impacts from oil and gas exports and commodity price fluctuations. Many African economies are food-dependent or face supply bottlenecks.
  • Latin America: Growth is expected to decline, though some countries like Chile and Colombia have seen strong rebounds. Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico remain below pre-pandemic consumption levels.
  • Oceania: Australia and New Zealand may benefit from export markets but are also affected by inflationary pressures and supply shortages.

• Policy Tapering: The shift from expansionary to contractionary policies in developed economies has led to tightening of fiscal and monetary measures. This includes increased taxes, reduced government spending, and higher interest rates, which are expected to reduce investment and increase financial instability.

• Debt and Financial Vulnerabilities: Many developing economies have increased debt levels due to pandemic-related measures and are now more exposed to currency depreciation and higher financing costs. The Fed's role as an unofficial lender-of-last resort is being tested, and the SDR allocation in 2021 was insufficient to address the needs.

• Need for Multilateral Coordination: The report calls for the establishment of a rules-based multilateral policy coordination system to address the complex and global nature of the current shocks. Ad hoc measures from the past are deemed inadequate for the current environment.

• Long-Term Development Challenges: The war is seen as a preview of future global shocks, including those from climate change. The report stresses the importance of building economic resilience and investing in social protection and demand-side policies to support long-term development.

Key Information

• Global Growth Forecast: 2.6% in 2022, down from 5.6% in 2021, with a 3% drop attributed to structural and policy factors and the war.
• Impact of the War:
  • Surged oil and gas prices.
  • Wheat prices have reached levels not seen since the late 2000s.
  • Sanctions and supply chain disruptions are expected to persist through 2022.
• Developing Countries Vulnerable:
  • Face trade deficits, debt service issues, and social unrest.
  • Food and fuel insecurity is a major threat to livelihoods and investment.
• Advanced Economies Policy Shifts:
  • Interest rates are rising, with the Fed expected to increase rates to 2.8% by 2024.
  • Quantitative easing is being unwound, increasing financial market volatility.
• Investment Trends:
  • Investment has recovered in some developing economies, but fiscal support withdrawal may reverse these trends.
  • Carry trades are likely to be encouraged by divergent interest rates, increasing financial fragility.

Conclusion

The global economy is facing a dual challenge of post-pandemic recovery and conflict-induced shocks, with developing countries at the center of the turbulence. The report underscores the need for coordinated multilateral action, fiscal and monetary support, and investments in resilience and social protection to navigate the complex and uncertain economic landscape ahead.