联合国贸易发展委员会-2025年贸易和发展展望_压力之下——不确定性重塑全球经济前景（英）-2025_40页_5mb

Trade and development foresights 2025

Under pressure: Uncertainty reshapes global economic prospects

1. Global outlook

• Global growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025, below the pre-pandemic threshold, signaling a recessionary phase.
• Key pressures include subdued demand, trade policy shocks, financial turbulence, and systemic uncertainty, disproportionately affecting developing countries.
• Policy uncertainty levels are the highest in this century, dampening business confidence and long-term investments.

2. Trade and investment trends

• Trade dynamism observed in late 2024 and early 2025 is expected to fade or reverse, driven by new tariffs and trade restrictions.
• Trade policy uncertainty hampers supply chains and international trade flows, pulling down global economic activity.
• Services trade has maintained growth, but investment in services dependent on global interconnectivity may decline due to heightened uncertainty.

3. Financing for development

• Fiscal consolidation in major economies reduces official development assistance (ODA) and social spending, threatening progress toward Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
• Higher financing costs and tighter global financial conditions exacerbate debt burdens, particularly for low-income countries.
• Escalating trade tensions and tighter monetary policies in advanced economies limit access to capital for developing countries.

4. Developing country vulnerabilities

• Strengthening South-South and intraregional trade offers a buffer against global uncertainty, driven by the rise of economies like China.
• However, many low-income countries face converging risks: worsening external conditions, high debt burdens, and weakening domestic growth.
• Geoeconomic confrontation could disrupt global trade, leading to a "perfect storm" for poorer nations.

5. Policy priorities for resilience

• UNCTAD emphasizes the need for policy coordination to mitigate economic fragmentation and geoeconomic confrontation.
• Strengthening regional and international trade links, along with fostering inclusive development models, is key to resilience in a fragile global economy.
• Calls for decisive action from developing countries to navigate shifting global dynamics, particularly in the context of reduced ODA.