2022-01-26-瑞士信贷集团-可再生PPA越来越多地承受供应链压力_21页_492kb

Renewable PPA Market Analysis Summary

Key Findings

Demand for renewable energy is strong, with 75% of project developers reporting supply chain pressures driving higher PPA prices. 65% of buyers accept higher PPA costs to meet decarbonization and scope 2 net-zero goals, demonstrating resilience despite uncertainties.

US PPA Price Trends

US solar PPAs reached $34.25/MWh in Q4 (up 6% Q/Q, 12% Y/Y). Wind PPAs hit $38.36/MWh (up 6% Q/Q, 19% Y/Y). Price volatility stems from supply chain issues, commodity price rises, and interconnection delays.

Supply Chain and Market Drivers

Procurement and supply chain challenges (75% of developers) rank highest in drivers of price volatility. Grid connection queues, especially in PJM, cause delays and limit supply. Europe also saw PPA prices rise by 8% Q/Q and 18% Y/Y due to similar factors.

Contract Structures

Non-standard PPA structures are prevalent for risk sharing: upside sharing above ceiling (61%), delayed contract start (56%), and market index (41%). This shift reflects buyer and developer adaptability to market uncertainties.

Market Outlook

Short-term supply chain disruptions may delay projects, but mid-to-long-term demand remains robust. Buyers are adopting flexible contracts to mitigate risks, and innovation in PPA terms supports continued deal activity despite price increases.