2025-06-17-世界银行-2025年全球经济展望报告（6月刊）_138页_4mb

Global Economic Prospects June 2025 highlights a significant slowdown in the global economy primarily driven by increased trade tensions and heightened policy uncertainty. World GDP growth is projected at 2.3% in 2025, the slowest pace since 2008. Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) is expected to decelerate to 3.8%, with nearly all regions facing downgrades due to external demand weakening and trade barriers rising.

East Asia and Pacific growth slows to 4.5%, Europe and Central Asia to 2.4%, Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.3%, the Middle East and North Africa to 2.7%, and Sub-Saharan Africa to 3.7%. Risks include further trade escalation, fiscal vulnerabilities, and geopolitical tensions, while upside scenarios depend on trade resolution.

Commodity prices are expected to decline by 10% in 2025, with oil prices averaging $66 per barrel. Inflation remains elevated, with G20 and EMDE inflation above targets in many cases, constraining policy easing.

Job creation lags behind population growth, especially in EMDEs, limiting poverty reduction. Structural reforms, fiscal consolidation, and multilateral cooperation to stabilize trade are key priorities. The report underscores the need for global collaboration to address vulnerabilities exacerbated by conflicts, debt crises, and climate change.