德银-亚太地区-酒店、休闲与博彩业-亚太博彩业2018展望：中国需求保持强劲-20180205-24页_3mb

报告摘要

2018 Asia-Pacific Gaming Industry Summary

Core Content

The Asia-Pacific gaming industry is entering its second year of Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) recovery, with a forecasted 15% growth in 2018F to US$55.1bn, up from 13% in 2017. Macau and the Philippines are expected to lead this growth, with 17% and 25% increases in GGR, respectively. Malaysia is also projected to see strong growth, while Singapore is anticipated to experience a market contraction.

Main Points

GGR Recovery: The entire Asia-Pacific gaming sector is recovering from a downturn, with 2018F expected to show a stronger performance than 2017.
Strong Growth in Key Markets: Macau, the Philippines, and Malaysia are highlighted as the main contributors to the growth, with the Philippines showing the most significant increase.
New Casino Developments: Only one new casino, MGM Cotai, is expected to open in 2018. Other developments such as new hotel towers and theme parks are anticipated to boost EBITDA for Wynn Palace, Okada Manila, and Genting Malaysia.
Valuation Trends: The sector is currently slightly above its historical average valuation, particularly in terms of EV/EBITDA. However, stocks often trade at higher premiums during GGR upcycles.
Investment Recommendations: Wynn Macau, Genting Malaysia, and Bloomberg are highlighted as top picks for 2018 due to their potential to benefit from increased gaming spend per Chinese player and new facilities.

Key Information

GGR Forecast: Asia-Pacific GGR is forecasted to grow 15% in 2018F to US$55.1bn.
Country-Specific Growth:
- Macau: 17%
- Philippines: 25%
- Malaysia: Expected to see strong GGR growth
Valuation Metrics:
- 12m fwd EV/EBITDA is 7% above historical average.
- Stocks may trade at higher premiums during GGR upcycles.
Top Picks:
- Wynn Macau (Buy): Expected to benefit from higher gaming spend and new F&B offerings.
- Genting Malaysia (Buy): Benefiting from new indoor and outdoor theme parks.
- Bloomberg (Buy): Expected to see growth due to increased Chinese demand and potential for higher spend per visitor.

Risks

Upside Risks: Stronger-than-expected GGR and positive policy revisions.
Downside Risks: Unforeseen events leading to travel restrictions, which could negatively impact the sector.

Analysts

Karen Tang
Jeffrey Ng
Mark Wilson, CFA
Aaron Salvador
Anthony El-Khoury

Summary Table

Company	Ticker	Price (Local Currency)	Market Cap (US$m)	EV/EBITDA 2018E	P/E 2018E	EBITDA Growth 2018E	EPS Growth 2018E	Dividend Yield 2018E	FCF Yield 2018E
Wynn Macau	1128.HK	HKD26.95	18,338	15.0	21.1	63%	70%	4.5%	5.2%
Genting Malaysia	GEN.MKL	MYR5.51	8,047	8.3	13.7	47%	79%	2.4%	5.4%
Bloomberg	BLOOM.PS	PHP12.30	2,625	8.6	14.6	21%	252%	0.0%	5.2%
Sands China	1928.HK	HKD46.60	48,096	16.6	22.5	19%	30%	5.6%	5.5%
MGM China	2282.HK	HKD24.10	11,712	17.1	31.5	45%	6%	1.1%	1.9%
Galaxy	0027.HK	HKD69.30	37,892	19.5	29.8	11%	-8%	2.6%	4.3%

Figures and Notes

Figure 1: Asia-Pacific GGR to grow 15% in 2018E, led by Macau, Philippines, and Malaysia.
Figure 2: Macau, Philippines, and Malaysia to lead growth in 2018E.
Figure 3: Macau GGR Market Share.
Figure 4: Singapore GGR Market Share.
Figure 5: Philippines Integrated Resorts GGR Market Share.
Figure 6: Gaming demand likely to outgrow table supply in the Philippines.
Figure 7: Rising Chinese arrivals in the Philippines.
Figure 8: China's outbound travel growth recovered sharply due to RMB appreciation.
Figure 9: Asia Pacific gaming stocks: Valuation vs EBITDA growth.
Figure 10: Asia Pacific gaming sector: Current vs historical valuation by country.
Figure 11: P/E valuation for 2018E.
Figure 12: Free cash flow yield for 2018E.
Figure 13: Dividend yield for 2018E.
Figure 14: Asia-Pacific gaming stocks: Valuations.
Figure 15: Asia-Pacific gaming stocks: Share price performances.