2025-05-22-Bernstein-豪赫蒂夫（HOT）_豪赫蒂夫尼斯会议-特纳的强劲发展势头_10页_355kb

European Industrials and Infrastructure: Hochtief (HOT)

Analyst Coverage

• Analyst: Victor Acitores (Hochtief has a €178.20 EUR 12-month price target)
• Rating: Market-Perform

Performance Summary (Conference Feedback, 22 May 2025)

• Strong momentum at Turner (construction management contracting, solid growth, attractive business model)
• De-risked backlog: €70.2bn (end-1Q25, +19.7% YoY, 22 months visibility, mostly low-risk contracts with price adjustment)
• Strong order intake: €12.9bn (end-1Q25, 1.2x work done LTM, strong momentum)

Business Unit Highlights

1. Turner: Low-risk, solid growth, guided FY25 OpPBT €660-750m (+16% to +32% YoY)
2. CIMIC: Strong energy infrastructure opportunities, guided FY25 OpPBT €480-510m (+6.7% to +13.4% YoY)
3. E&C: Focus on German civil engineering, public buildings, North America; guided FY25 OpPBT €85-95m (-3.6% to +7.7% YoY)
4. Abertis subsidiary: Expected ~€600m annual dividend, similar OpPBT in 2025 vs €81m in 2024

Financials & Valuation (FY25E)

• OpPBT Guidance FY25: €680-730m (+9% to +17% YoY vs €723m estimate, €716m Bloomberg consensus)
• EPS (EUR): €9.21 (2025E)
• P/E Ratio: 18.0x
• Dividend Yield: ~3.1%

Investment Implications

• Positive Factors: Diversification, strong CEO, de-risked backlog, exposure to megatrends (data centers, infrastructure), shareholder structure (ACS)
• Downside Risks: FX (AUD/USD depreciation), macroeconomic deterioration, cost overruns, working capital issues
• Key Metrics: €70.2bn backlog, strong OpCF (€2bn FY24), €6.5bn liquidity, underpayout policy (c.85% of OpPBT)

Analyst Comments Summary

• Momentum in order intake remains strong.
• Market positioning for growth areas is solid.
• Rating unchanged at Market-Perform.