2025-05-22-Bernstein-科莱恩公司（CLN）_科莱恩尼斯会议——力求保持一贯表现_10页_288kb

Clariant AG Conference Feedback Summary

Date: 22 May 2025
Presented by: Andreas Schwarzwälder (Head of IR)

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Key Highlights

Rating & Price Target

• Rating: Market-Perform
• Price Target (CLN.SW): CHF 10.10
• Upside/Downside: 8%

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Financial Performance

• Underlying Performance: Comparable to solid Q1 results.
• Revenue Impact: Negative due to FX headwinds (-HSD in Q2 and ~4% for FY25E).
• Cost Savings: Progress on cost savings from the Lucas Meyer integration.
• Investor Interest: Pick-up in interest, though concerns remain over ethylene purchasing legal situation.

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Capital Structure & Market Dynamics

• Dividend Yield: 4.4%
• Market Cap (EV): CHF 3,177M (M) / CHF 4,817M (EV)
• Tariff Impact Declined: Expected impact reduced from CHF 25m to CHF 15m due to US-China de-escalation.
• Secondary Economic Impact: Greater than tariff effect.

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Analyst Comments

• Confident execution despite a difficult backdrop.
• FX is now a headwind, macro situation unclear.
• Integration of Lucas Meyer: Growth on track; benefits seen in products & joint R&D.
• Ethylene Litigation: Resolution unlikely in the near term.

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Valuation & Risks

• Adjusted P/E (2025E): 12.5x
• EV/EBITDA (2025E): ~7.5x, premium to industrial peers’ 6x.
• Downside Risks: Earnings misses, performance in catalysis, EBITDA margin targets, integration challenges.
• Upside Risks: Consistent earnings beats, successful integration, fiscal stimulus benefits.

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Investment Implications

• Outlook: Steady growth expected from chemical industry and consumer business segments (adsorbents, catalysis).